Friday, 18/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeBrentford 3:0 Chelsea
Brentford were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Brentford's attack: 2.65 xG against 1.59 projected (+1.06). Chelsea produced 0.83 xG against 1.38 projected (−0.55).
Goals
- 61' Jaidon Anthony Brentford · 1.00 xG chance 1–0
- 83' Igor Thiago Brentford · 0.62 xG chance 2–0
- 90' Fabio Carvalho Brentford · 0.42 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- Brentford
- 41% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Chelsea
- 31%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Brentford produced 1.06 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 12
- On target
- 6
- 2
- Inside the box
- 9
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.22
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.44
- 0.59
- Set-piece xG
- 1.48
- 0.24
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.90 for Brentford.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 3.75 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Brentford
- Chelsea
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.74 xG created 1.70 xGA
- D 1.71 created, 1.72 conceded against Crystal Palace
- D 1.56 created, 3.04 conceded against Liverpool
- W 3.87 created, 0.57 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- D 1.56 created, 1.43 conceded against Leeds United
- D 1.21 created, 1.71 conceded against Sunderland
- D 0.50 created, 1.75 conceded against Bournemouth
1.34 xG created 1.56 xGA
- W 0.63 created, 1.27 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- L 0.89 created, 1.84 conceded against Sunderland
- W 2.24 created, 1.33 conceded against Fulham
- W 2.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 0.39 created, 2.05 conceded against Arsenal
- D 0.91 created, 1.38 conceded against Hull City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea not to score | 5.50 | +23.6% | Won |
| Chelsea at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +17.9% | Won |
| Brentford to win | 2.70 | +10.0% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | +8.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.70 | +5.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 40.7% | 35.3% | +5.4 pp | 2.45 |
| Draw | 28.5% | 25.8% | +2.8 pp | 3.50 |
| Chelsea | 30.7% | 38.9% | −8.2 pp | 3.26 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to score | 82.0% | 78.3% | +3.7 pp | 1.22 |
| Brentford not to score | 18.0% | 21.7% | −3.7 pp | 5.57 |
| Chelsea to score | 77.5% | 82.8% | −5.3 pp | 1.29 |
| Chelsea not to score | 22.5% | 17.2% | +5.3 pp | 4.45 |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | 66.3% | −1.1 pp | 1.53 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.8% | 33.7% | +1.1 pp | 2.87 |
| Brentford 2+ goals | 48.7% | 48.5% | +0.1 pp | 2.05 |
| Brentford at most 1 goal | 51.3% | 51.5% | −0.1 pp | 1.95 |
| Chelsea 2+ goals | 41.0% | 53.7% | −12.6 pp | 2.44 |
| Chelsea at most 1 goal | 59.0% | 46.3% | +12.6 pp | 1.70 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | 82.8% | +0.7 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.5% | 17.2% | −0.7 pp | 6.06 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 63.6% | −5.0 pp | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 36.4% | +5.0 pp | 2.42 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Brentford sample
- 20 matches
- Chelsea sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.