Chelsea 2:2 Hull City: xG & match report · Premier League

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Chelsea Home 0.91 xG · 12 shots

Hull City Away 1.38 xG · 13 shots

22 Hull City had the better chances, but it finished level

Chelsea were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Chelsea's attack: 0.91 xG against 1.85 projected (−0.94). Hull City produced 1.38 xG against 0.99 projected (+0.39).

Goals

7' Morgan Rogers Chelsea · 0.11 xG chance 1–0
28' Mohamed Belloumi Hull City · 0.15 xG chance 1–1
34' Mohamed Belloumi Hull City · 0.07 xG chance 1–2
66' João Pedro Chelsea · 0.27 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Chelsea: 57%
Draw: 26% What happened
Hull City: 17%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Chelsea 1.85 0.91 -0.94

Hull City 0.99 1.38 +0.39

Chelsea produced 0.94 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Chelsea Hull City

Shots: 12; 13
On target: 7; 5
Inside the box: 6; 9
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.70; 1.33
Set-piece xG: 0.17; 0.25
Penalties: —; —

Chelsea's shots add up to 0.87 xG and Hull City's to 1.58; the published figures are 0.91 and 1.38.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 2.45 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Chelsea
Hull City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Chelsea

1.27 xG created 1.42 xGA

D 0.50 created, 0.56 conceded against Liverpool
W 0.63 created, 1.27 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
L 0.89 created, 1.84 conceded against Sunderland
W 2.24 created, 1.33 conceded against Fulham
W 2.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
L 0.39 created, 2.05 conceded against Arsenal

Hull City

0.85 xG created 1.68 xGA

W 1.26 created, 1.81 conceded against Manchester United
W 0.72 created, 1.29 conceded against Coventry City
D 0.57 created, 1.93 conceded against Aston Villa

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged4 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Chelsea against Hull City before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Hull City to win	11.00	+87.7%	Lost
Chelsea not to score	13.00	+74.9%	Lost
Draw	6.50	+69.7%	Won
Chelsea at most 1 goal	3.75	+60.6%	Lost
Hull City 2+ goals	5.50	+43.6%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	3.20	+41.9%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.50	+20.1%	Lost
Hull City to score	1.80	+18.4%	Won
Both teams to score	1.91	+11.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Chelsea	56.8%	77.0%	−20.1 pp	1.76
Draw	26.1%	14.5%	+11.6 pp	3.83
Hull City	17.1%	8.6%	+8.5 pp	5.86

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Chelsea to score	86.6%	92.6%	−6.0 pp	1.16
Chelsea not to score	13.5%	7.4%	+6.0 pp	7.43
Hull City to score	65.8%	51.5%	+14.3 pp	1.52
Hull City not to score	34.2%	48.5%	−14.3 pp	2.92
Both teams to score	58.4%	50.0%	+8.4 pp	1.71
Both teams not to score	41.6%	50.0%	−8.4 pp	2.41
Chelsea 2+ goals	57.2%	75.0%	−17.8 pp	1.75
Chelsea at most 1 goal	42.8%	25.0%	+17.8 pp	2.34
Hull City 2+ goals	26.1%	17.2%	+8.9 pp	3.83
Hull City at most 1 goal	73.9%	82.8%	−8.9 pp	1.35
Over 1.5 goals	81.5%	85.4%	−3.9 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.5%	14.6%	+3.9 pp	5.41
Over 2.5 goals	55.6%	70.1%	−14.5 pp	1.80
Under 2.5 goals	44.4%	29.9%	+14.5 pp	2.25

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Chelsea sample: 20 matches
Hull City sample: 3 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Warnings

Hull City has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.