Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 13:30
Full timeHull City 2:0 Manchester United
Hull City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Manchester United's attack: 1.81 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.46).
Goals
- 17' Semi Ajayi Hull City · 0.84 xG chance 1–0
- 38' Nobel Mendy Hull City · 0.29 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Hull City
- 35% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Manchester United
- 35%
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Projected vs produced
Manchester United produced 0.46 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 21
- On target
- 4
- 5
- Inside the box
- 5
- 15
- xG per shot
- 0.17
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 0.07
- 1.52
- Set-piece xG
- 1.29
- 0.30
- Penalties
- —
- —
Hull City's shots add up to 1.36 xG and Manchester United's to 1.82; the published figures are 1.26 and 1.81.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 3.18 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Hull City
- Manchester United
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
1.79 xG created 1.30 xGA
- W 0.29 created, 1.57 conceded against Chelsea
- W 1.27 created, 1.43 conceded against Brentford
- W 2.34 created, 0.89 conceded against Liverpool
- D 0.62 created, 1.25 conceded against Sunderland
- W 4.57 created, 1.88 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- W 1.66 created, 0.79 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged6 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City to win | 8.50 | +198.9% | Won |
| Hull City 2+ goals | 5.00 | +102.7% | Won |
| Manchester United not to score | 8.00 | +85.4% | Won |
| Manchester United at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +57.4% | Won |
| Draw | 5.00 | +51.6% | Lost |
| Hull City to score | 1.73 | +33.3% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +19.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +4.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 35.2% | 11.2% | +24.0 pp | 2.84 |
| Draw | 30.3% | 19.0% | +11.3 pp | 3.30 |
| Manchester United | 34.5% | 69.8% | −35.3 pp | 2.90 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City to score | 77.2% | 53.7% | +23.5 pp | 1.30 |
| Hull City not to score | 22.8% | 46.3% | −23.5 pp | 4.38 |
| Manchester United to score | 76.8% | 88.1% | −11.2 pp | 1.30 |
| Manchester United not to score | 23.2% | 11.9% | +11.2 pp | 4.32 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | 48.0% | +13.0 pp | 1.64 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.0% | 52.0% | −13.0 pp | 2.57 |
| Hull City 2+ goals | 40.5% | 18.9% | +21.6 pp | 2.47 |
| Hull City at most 1 goal | 59.5% | 81.1% | −21.6 pp | 1.68 |
| Manchester United 2+ goals | 40.0% | 64.5% | −24.5 pp | 2.50 |
| Manchester United at most 1 goal | 60.0% | 35.5% | +24.5 pp | 1.67 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | 78.9% | +0.6 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.4% | 21.1% | −0.6 pp | 4.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 56.9% | −4.5 pp | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 43.1% | +4.5 pp | 2.10 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hull City sample
- 0 matches
- Manchester United sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Hull City — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.