Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Hull City – Arsenal
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Hull City
- 25%
- Draw
- 33%
- Arsenal
- 42%
| Hull City | Draw | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.98 | 3.05 | 2.38 |
- Total goals
- 2.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Arsenal
42% Arsenal to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 9th
- Arsenal attack v Hull City defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 16th
- Arsenal defence v Hull City attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs -0.37
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 0.97 – 1.30
- Hull City v Arsenal
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Hull City
17 listed-
Charlie Hughes 0% chance
Defender · Groin injury - Unknown return date
-
Enis Destan 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Konyaspor permanently
-
Jack Butland 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Arm injury - Unknown return date
-
Harvey Cartwright 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Grimsby Town on loan for the rest of the season
-
Cody Drameh 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Genoa permanently
-
Abu Kamara 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Portsmouth permanently
-
Darko Gyabi 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Ilyas Ansah 0% chance
Forward · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Liam Millar 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Birmingham on loan for the rest of the season
-
David Akintola 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Omonoia FC permanently
-
Mason Burstow 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Sheffield Wednesday on loan for the rest of the season
-
Hidemasa Morita 0% chance
Midfielder · Calf injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Thimothée Lo-Tutala 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Colchester United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Matty Jacob 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Newport County on loan until January
-
Eliot Matazo 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Matt Targett 75% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Brooke Norton-Cuffy 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Arsenal
9 listed-
William Saliba 0% chance
Defender · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Gabriel Martinelli 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Gabriel Jesus 0% chance
Forward · Has joined FC Barcelona permanently
-
Fábio Vieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Hamburger SV permanently
-
Reiss Nelson 0% chance
Midfielder · has departed the club as a free agent.
-
Ethan Nwaneri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Borussia Dortmund on loan for the rest of the season
-
Declan Rice 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Kai Havertz 75% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Benjamin White 75% chance
Defender · Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Hull City | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.10 · 16th | (better) 1.70 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.48 · 10th | (better) 0.81 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.37 · 15th | (better) +0.89 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 16th | (better) 2.07 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.37 | (better) +1.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Arsenal clean sheet
- 35%
- Arsenal 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.0%
- 0:1
- 11.0%
- 0:0
- 10.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hull City sample
- 5 matches
- Arsenal sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Hull City
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Arsenal
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Hull City has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.