Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:30
28d 17h to kick-offLiverpool – Arsenal
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Liverpool
- 32%
- Draw
- 33%
- Arsenal
- 35%
| Liverpool | Draw | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.15 | 3.02 | 2.85 |
- Total goals
- 2.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Arsenal to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 3rd
- Arsenal attack v Liverpool defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 5th
- Arsenal defence v Liverpool attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs +0.62
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.12 – 1.19
- Liverpool v Arsenal
Squad news
Liverpool
12 listed-
Calvin Ramsay 0% chance
Defender · Has joined St Mirren on loan for the rest of the season
-
Hugo Ekitiké 0% chance
Forward · Achilles injury - Unknown return date
-
Harvey Elliott 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
-
Giovanni Leoni 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Armin Pecsi 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined TSV Hartberg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Vitezslav Jaros 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Stefan Bajčetić Maquieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Celta Vigo permanently
-
Conor Bradley 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Federico Chiesa 0% chance
Midfielder · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Curtis Jones 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Alexander Isak 75% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cody Gakpo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
Arsenal
9 listed-
William Saliba 0% chance
Defender · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Gabriel Martinelli 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Gabriel Jesus 0% chance
Forward · Has joined FC Barcelona permanently
-
Fábio Vieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Hamburger SV permanently
-
Reiss Nelson 0% chance
Midfielder · has departed the club as a free agent.
-
Ethan Nwaneri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Borussia Dortmund on loan for the rest of the season
-
Declan Rice 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Kai Havertz 75% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Benjamin White 75% chance
Defender · Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.67 · 7th | (better) 1.70 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.22 · 3rd | (better) 0.81 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.45 · 7th | (better) +0.89 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.69 · 4th | (better) 2.07 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.62 | (better) +1.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Arsenal clean sheet
- 29%
- Arsenal 2+ goals
- 34%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.1%
- 0:0
- 10.1%
- 0:1
- 9.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Arsenal sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Liverpool
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Arsenal
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.