Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 20:15
Full timeBrinje Grosuplje 2:1 Kalcer Radomlje
Brinje Grosuplje were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Brinje Grosuplje's attack: 2.06 xG against 1.58 projected (+0.48). Kalcer Radomlje produced 1.50 xG against 1.14 projected (+0.36).
The model against the result
- Brinje Grosuplje
- 46% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Kalcer Radomlje
- 25%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Brinje Grosuplje produced 0.48 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 8
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 10
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.19
Recent form
1.38 xG created 2.06 xGA
- D 2.07 created, 1.28 conceded against NK Bravo
- L 1.48 created, 1.72 conceded against NŠ Mura
- L 1.20 created, 3.53 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- W 1.56 created, 1.48 conceded against NK Celje
- L 0.90 created, 2.87 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- L 1.09 created, 1.46 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
1.36 xG created 1.95 xGA
- L 2.40 created, 1.31 conceded against NK Bravo
- W 1.66 created, 1.24 conceded against NŠ Mura
- L 1.02 created, 1.28 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- D 1.27 created, 2.70 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- L 0.84 created, 3.23 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- L 0.99 created, 1.91 conceded against NK Maribor
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +3.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +2.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brinje Grosuplje | 46.0% | 45.5% | +0.5 pp | 2.17 |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.0% | +3.2 pp | 3.42 |
| Kalcer Radomlje | 24.8% | 28.5% | −3.7 pp | 4.03 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brinje Grosuplje to score | 81.9% | 78.3% | +3.5 pp | 1.22 |
| Brinje Grosuplje not to score | 18.1% | 21.7% | −3.5 pp | 5.51 |
| Kalcer Radomlje to score | 70.9% | 68.7% | +2.1 pp | 1.41 |
| Kalcer Radomlje not to score | 29.1% | 31.3% | −2.1 pp | 3.43 |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 53.7% | +6.0 pp | 1.67 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.3% | 46.3% | −6.0 pp | 2.48 |
| Brinje Grosuplje 2+ goals | 48.4% | 46.3% | +2.0 pp | 2.07 |
| Brinje Grosuplje at most 1 goal | 51.6% | 53.7% | −2.0 pp | 1.94 |
| Kalcer Radomlje 2+ goals | 32.0% | 35.5% | −3.5 pp | 3.12 |
| Kalcer Radomlje at most 1 goal | 68.0% | 64.5% | +3.5 pp | 1.47 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | 75.0% | +4.6 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.4% | 25.0% | −4.6 pp | 4.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 52.6% | −0.0 pp | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 47.4% | +0.0 pp | 2.11 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Brinje Grosuplje sample
- 3 matches
- Kalcer Radomlje sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Warnings
- Brinje Grosuplje has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.