Friday, 04/09/2026 at 20:15
Full timeNK Nafta Lendava 1903 3:1 Kalcer Radomlje
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was NK Nafta Lendava 1903's attack: 3.23 xG against 2.00 projected (+1.23). Kalcer Radomlje produced 0.84 xG against 1.38 projected (−0.54).
The model against the result
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- 51% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- Kalcer Radomlje
- 24%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 produced 1.23 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 10
- On target
- 8
- 3
- Inside the box
- 11
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.23
- 0.08
Recent form
1.48 xG created 1.90 xGA
- W 2.17 created, 1.87 conceded against NK Bravo
- W 1.29 created, 1.94 conceded against NŠ Mura
- D 1.01 created, 1.58 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- L 1.29 created, 2.11 conceded against NK Celje
- L 2.62 created, 1.92 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- L 0.52 created, 1.99 conceded against NK Maribor
1.41 xG created 1.74 xGA
- L 0.84 created, 1.14 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
- D 1.26 created, 2.75 conceded against FC Koper
- L 2.40 created, 1.31 conceded against NK Bravo
- W 1.66 created, 1.24 conceded against NŠ Mura
- L 1.02 created, 1.28 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- D 1.27 created, 2.70 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 sample
- 4 matches
- Kalcer Radomlje sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.