Brinje Grosuplje 1:2 NK Nafta Lendava 1903: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:15

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Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Brinje Grosuplje Home 1.09 xG

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Away 1.46 xG

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Brinje Grosuplje were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. NK Nafta Lendava 1903 won 2–1. The biggest difference was Brinje Grosuplje's attack: 1.09 xG against 1.44 projected (−0.35).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Brinje Grosuplje: 39%
Draw: 30%
NK Nafta Lendava 1903: 31% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Brinje Grosuplje 1.44 1.09 -0.35

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.29 1.46 +0.17

Brinje Grosuplje produced 0.35 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Brinje Grosuplje NK Nafta Lendava 1903

Shots: 11; 11
On target: 5; 6
Inside the box: 6; 6
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Brinje Grosuplje

1.32 xG created 2.09 xGA

D 0.69 created, 1.67 conceded against FC Koper
D 2.07 created, 1.28 conceded against NK Bravo
L 1.48 created, 1.72 conceded against NŠ Mura
L 1.20 created, 3.53 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
W 1.56 created, 1.48 conceded against NK Celje
L 0.90 created, 2.87 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana

NK Nafta Lendava 1903

1.66 xG created 1.73 xGA

W 1.29 created, 1.94 conceded against NŠ Mura
D 1.01 created, 1.58 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
L 1.29 created, 2.11 conceded against NK Celje
L 2.62 created, 1.92 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
L 0.52 created, 1.99 conceded against NK Maribor
W 3.23 created, 0.84 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

No value opportunities met the model's threshold before kick-off.

View pre-match record

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Brinje Grosuplje	38.6%	40.5%	−2.0 pp	2.59
Draw	30.0%	27.0%	+3.0 pp	3.33
NK Nafta Lendava 1903	31.4%	32.4%	−1.1 pp	3.19

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Brinje Grosuplje to score	78.8%	76.6%	+2.2 pp	1.27
Brinje Grosuplje not to score	21.2%	23.4%	−2.2 pp	4.72
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 to score	75.1%	73.1%	+2.0 pp	1.33
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 not to score	24.9%	26.9%	−2.0 pp	4.02
Both teams to score	60.9%	57.7%	+3.3 pp	1.64
Both teams not to score	39.1%	42.3%	−3.3 pp	2.56
Brinje Grosuplje 2+ goals	43.2%	46.3%	−3.1 pp	2.31
Brinje Grosuplje at most 1 goal	56.8%	53.7%	+3.1 pp	1.76
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 2+ goals	37.7%	39.2%	−1.5 pp	2.65
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 at most 1 goal	62.3%	60.8%	+1.5 pp	1.61
Over 1.5 goals	79.7%	76.6%	+3.1 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.3%	23.4%	−3.1 pp	4.92
Over 2.5 goals	52.6%	55.3%	−2.6 pp	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	47.4%	44.7%	+2.6 pp	2.11

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 2 warnings

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Brinje Grosuplje sample: 3 matches
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 sample: 4 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Brinje Grosuplje has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.