NK Bravo 2:0 NŠ Mura: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:15

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Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NK Bravo Home 1.63 xG

NŠ Mura Away 2.42 xG

20 The result went against the chances

NŠ Mura were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. NK Bravo won 2–0. The biggest difference was NŠ Mura's attack: 2.42 xG against 1.61 projected (+0.81).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Bravo: 34% What happened
Draw: 28%
NŠ Mura: 38%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Bravo 1.54 1.63 +0.09

NŠ Mura 1.61 2.42 +0.81

NŠ Mura produced 0.81 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Bravo NŠ Mura

Shots: 9; 17
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 7; 11
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Bravo

1.58 xG created 2.01 xGA

W 2.44 created, 1.76 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
L 1.87 created, 2.17 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
W 1.31 created, 2.40 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
D 1.28 created, 2.07 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
D 1.60 created, 2.12 conceded against FC Koper
L 0.97 created, 1.55 conceded against NK Maribor

NŠ Mura

1.20 xG created 1.44 xGA

D 0.96 created, 1.94 conceded against NK Celje
W 0.30 created, 1.12 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
L 1.94 created, 1.29 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
L 1.24 created, 1.66 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
W 1.72 created, 1.48 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
L 1.06 created, 1.14 conceded against FC Koper

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Bravo: 2 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Bravo against NŠ Mura before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NŠ Mura 2+ goals	2.63	+30.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+14.1%	Lost
NŠ Mura to win	3.00	+13.7%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.80	+13.4%	Lost
NŠ Mura to score	1.33	+10.0%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+7.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Bravo	34.4%	42.6%	−8.2 pp	2.91
Draw	27.7%	27.5%	+0.1 pp	3.61
NŠ Mura	37.9%	29.8%	+8.1 pp	2.64

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Bravo to score	81.2%	76.6%	+4.6 pp	1.23
NK Bravo not to score	18.8%	23.4%	−4.6 pp	5.31
NŠ Mura to score	82.6%	70.9%	+11.6 pp	1.21
NŠ Mura not to score	17.4%	29.1%	−11.6 pp	5.73
Both teams to score	68.5%	55.7%	+12.7 pp	1.46
Both teams not to score	31.5%	44.3%	−12.7 pp	3.17
NK Bravo 2+ goals	46.9%	46.3%	+0.6 pp	2.13
NK Bravo at most 1 goal	53.1%	53.7%	−0.6 pp	1.88
NŠ Mura 2+ goals	49.5%	35.5%	+14.1 pp	2.02
NŠ Mura at most 1 goal	50.5%	64.5%	−14.1 pp	1.98
Over 1.5 goals	86.0%	75.0%	+11.0 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	14.0%	25.0%	−11.0 pp	7.14
Over 2.5 goals	63.0%	52.6%	+10.4 pp	1.59
Under 2.5 goals	37.0%	47.4%	−10.4 pp	2.70

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Bravo sample: 20 matches
NŠ Mura sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.