NK Nafta Lendava 1903 2:3 NK Maribor: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 20:15

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Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Home 0.52 xG

NK Maribor Away 1.99 xG

23 The scoreline reflected the chances

NK Maribor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was NK Nafta Lendava 1903's attack: 0.52 xG against 1.38 projected (−0.86). NK Maribor produced 1.99 xG against 1.59 projected (+0.40).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Nafta Lendava 1903: 31%
Draw: 29%
NK Maribor: 41% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.38 0.52 -0.86

NK Maribor 1.59 1.99 +0.40

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 produced 0.86 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 NK Maribor

Shots: 5; 19
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 3; 13
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Nafta Lendava 1903

1.72 xG created 1.82 xGA

L 1.94 created, 1.49 conceded against FC Koper
W 2.17 created, 1.87 conceded against NK Bravo
W 1.29 created, 1.94 conceded against NŠ Mura
D 1.01 created, 1.58 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
L 1.29 created, 2.11 conceded against NK Celje
L 2.62 created, 1.92 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana

NK Maribor

1.10 xG created 0.80 xGA

D 0.85 created, 1.13 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
W 1.38 created, 0.35 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
D 1.44 created, 1.35 conceded against NK Celje
W 0.40 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Koper
D 0.97 created, 0.46 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
W 1.55 created, 0.97 conceded against NK Bravo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Nafta Lendava 1903 against NK Maribor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 to win	5.25	+38.9%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+12.7%	Won
Draw	4.10	+8.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+0.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Nafta Lendava 1903	30.9%	17.2%	+13.7 pp	3.24
Draw	28.5%	22.0%	+6.6 pp	3.50
NK Maribor	40.6%	60.9%	−20.3 pp	2.46

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.3%	51.5%	+13.8 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.7%	48.5%	−13.8 pp	2.88
Over 1.5 goals	83.6%	78.3%	+5.2 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.4%	21.7%	−5.2 pp	6.08
Over 2.5 goals	58.8%	56.3%	+2.4 pp	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.2%	43.7%	−2.4 pp	2.42

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 sample: 4 matches
NK Maribor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.