Dinamo Makhachkala 0:1 FK Krasnodar: xG & match report · Russian Premier League

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 16:30

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Match report · Russian Premier League

Dinamo Makhachkala Home

FK Krasnodar Away

FK Krasnodar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 1–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Dinamo Makhachkala: 24%
Draw: 30%
FK Krasnodar: 46% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.03 xG created 0.88 xGA

L 1.78 created, 2.18 conceded against FK Krasnodar
L 1.25 created, 0.32 conceded against FC Rostov
D 0.66 created, 0.97 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
D 0.59 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
W 0.66 created, 0.70 conceded against Ural Yekaterinburg
W 1.21 created, 0.39 conceded against Ural Yekaterinburg

FK Krasnodar

1.87 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 1.22 created, 3.13 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
W 2.18 created, 1.78 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
W 1.30 created, 0.35 conceded against Akron Togliatti
L 1.32 created, 1.31 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
W 2.69 created, 1.39 conceded against Orenburg
W 2.49 created, 0.79 conceded against Rubin Kazan

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Dinamo Makhachkala: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Dinamo Makhachkala against FK Krasnodar before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.18	+7.2%	Lost
Dinamo Makhachkala to win	4.46	+5.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dinamo Makhachkala	23.7%	21.2%	+2.4 pp	4.23
Draw	30.0%	30.0%	+0.0 pp	3.33
FK Krasnodar	46.3%	48.8%	−2.4 pp	2.16

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	49.2%	43.5%	+5.7 pp	2.03
Under 2.5 goals	50.8%	56.5%	−5.7 pp	1.97

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Dinamo Makhachkala sample: 20 matches
FK Krasnodar sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.