Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 15:15
Full timeDinamo Makhachkala 2:0 Rodina Moscow
Dinamo Makhachkala were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 2–0.
The model against the result
- Dinamo Makhachkala
- 37% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Rodina Moscow
- 31%
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Recent form
1.03 xG created 0.88 xGA
- L 1.78 created, 2.18 conceded against FK Krasnodar
- L 1.25 created, 0.32 conceded against FC Rostov
- D 0.66 created, 0.97 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
- D 0.59 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
- W 0.66 created, 0.70 conceded against Ural Yekaterinburg
- W 1.21 created, 0.39 conceded against Ural Yekaterinburg
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.01 | +26.9% | Lost |
| Rodina Moscow to win | 4.10 | +26.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.88 | +0.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Makhachkala | 37.5% | 52.6% | −15.1 pp | 2.67 |
| Draw | 31.6% | 24.0% | +7.7 pp | 3.16 |
| Rodina Moscow | 30.9% | 23.4% | +7.5 pp | 3.24 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 48.4% | −1.9 pp | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 51.6% | +1.9 pp | 1.87 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dinamo Makhachkala sample
- 20 matches
- Rodina Moscow sample
- 0 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Rodina Moscow — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.