Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 15:15
14d 11h to kick-offDynamo Moscow – CSKA Moscow
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dynamo Moscow
- 50%
- Draw
- 26%
- CSKA Moscow
- 24%
| Dynamo Moscow | Draw | CSKA Moscow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.99 | 3.88 | 4.17 |
- Total goals
- 3.26
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Dynamo Moscow
50% Dynamo Moscow to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 13th
- Dynamo Moscow attack v CSKA Moscow defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 8th
- Dynamo Moscow defence v CSKA Moscow attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.13 vs -0.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.93 – 1.34
- Dynamo Moscow v CSKA Moscow
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dynamo Moscow | CSKA Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.13 | -0.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Dynamo Moscow clean sheet
- 24%
- Dynamo Moscow 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 2:2
- 7.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dynamo Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- CSKA Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dynamo Moscow
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · CSKA Moscow
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.