Thursday, 17/09/2026 at 19:45
Full timeDinamo Makhachkala 1:3 CSKA Moscow
Dinamo Makhachkala were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. CSKA Moscow won 3–1.
The model against the result
- Dinamo Makhachkala
- 40%
- Draw
- 30%
- CSKA Moscow
- 29% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.03 xG created 0.88 xGA
- L 1.78 created, 2.18 conceded against FK Krasnodar
- L 1.25 created, 0.32 conceded against FC Rostov
- D 0.66 created, 0.97 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
- D 0.59 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
- W 0.66 created, 0.70 conceded against Ural Yekaterinburg
- W 1.21 created, 0.39 conceded against Ural Yekaterinburg
1.21 xG created 1.56 xGA
- D 0.17 created, 0.90 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- D 0.85 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Rostov
- D 1.18 created, 1.88 conceded against Rubin Kazan
- L 1.35 created, 1.93 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
- W 2.54 created, 1.87 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
- W 1.19 created, 2.03 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Makhachkala to win | 3.28 | +31.4% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | +4.0% | Won |
| Draw | 3.32 | +1.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Makhachkala | 40.1% | 28.9% | +11.2 pp | 2.50 |
| Draw | 30.4% | 28.6% | +1.9 pp | 3.28 |
| CSKA Moscow | 29.5% | 42.5% | −13.0 pp | 3.39 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 46.2% | +4.5 pp | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 53.8% | −4.5 pp | 2.03 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dinamo Makhachkala sample
- 20 matches
- CSKA Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.