Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 15:15
Full timeZenit St. Petersburg 2:1 Lokomotiv Moscow
Zenit St. Petersburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 2–1.
The model against the result
- Zenit St. Petersburg
- 53% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Lokomotiv Moscow
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.99 xG created 0.78 xGA
- W 1.59 created, 0.15 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
- D 0.56 created, 1.82 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
- W 2.00 created, 0.60 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
- W 1.93 created, 1.35 conceded against CSKA Moscow
- W 3.99 created, 0.27 conceded against FC Sochi
- W 1.88 created, 0.51 conceded against FC Rostov
1.80 xG created 1.54 xGA
- D 1.82 created, 0.56 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
- L 1.37 created, 2.91 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- D 2.04 created, 0.44 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
- W 2.09 created, 2.24 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
- L 2.03 created, 1.19 conceded against CSKA Moscow
- D 1.44 created, 1.87 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Moscow to win | 8.16 | +62.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.13 | +38.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit St. Petersburg | 53.1% | 69.5% | −16.4 pp | 1.88 |
| Draw | 27.0% | 18.7% | +8.3 pp | 3.70 |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | 19.9% | 11.8% | +8.1 pp | 5.04 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 57.0% | −0.6 pp | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 43.0% | +0.6 pp | 2.30 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zenit St. Petersburg sample
- 20 matches
- Lokomotiv Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 21 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 22 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.