Dundee FC 1:2 Hibernian: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Scottish Premiership

Dundee FC Home 0.78 xG · 11 shots

Hibernian Away 2.42 xG · 25 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Hibernian were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Hibernian's attack: 2.42 xG against 1.32 projected (+1.10). Dundee FC produced 0.78 xG against 1.24 projected (−0.46).

Goals

25' Martin Boyle Hibernian · 0.62 xG chance 0–1
61' Callum Wright Hibernian · 0.17 xG chance 0–2
83' Joe Westley Dundee FC · 0.22 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Dundee FC: 32%
Draw: 31%
Hibernian: 36% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Dundee FC 1.24 0.78 -0.46

Hibernian 1.32 2.42 +1.10

Hibernian produced 1.10 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Dundee FC Hibernian

Shots: 11; 25
On target: 3; 7
Inside the box: 7; 18
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.46; 2.36
Set-piece xG: 0.31; 0.08
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.78 for Dundee FC and 2.42 for Hibernian.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

36 shots · 3.21 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Dundee FC
Hibernian
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Dundee FC

1.43 xG created 1.78 xGA

W 1.98 created, 1.52 conceded against Livingston
L 0.43 created, 3.38 conceded against Kilmarnock
W 1.78 created, 1.29 conceded against Aberdeen
L 0.47 created, 2.55 conceded against Celtic
W 2.22 created, 0.70 conceded against Aberdeen
W 1.68 created, 1.23 conceded against Dundee United

Hibernian

1.22 xG created 1.64 xGA

L 0.38 created, 2.78 conceded against Celtic
W 1.07 created, 0.48 conceded against Falkirk FC
W 1.54 created, 1.45 conceded against Rangers
L 0.70 created, 1.07 conceded against Motherwell
L 1.92 created, 2.00 conceded against Motherwell
W 1.74 created, 2.05 conceded against Rangers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Dundee FC: 0 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Dundee FC against Hibernian before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+6.5%	Lost
Dundee FC to win	3.00	+3.3%	Lost
Hibernian at most 1 goal	1.67	+1.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dundee FC	32.3%	31.7%	+0.6 pp	3.10
Draw	31.3%	27.9%	+3.4 pp	3.19
Hibernian	36.4%	40.4%	−4.0 pp	2.75

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dundee FC to score	73.9%	70.9%	+3.0 pp	1.35
Dundee FC not to score	26.1%	29.1%	−3.0 pp	3.83
Hibernian to score	76.0%	76.6%	−0.6 pp	1.32
Hibernian not to score	24.0%	23.4%	+0.6 pp	4.16
Both teams to score	58.0%	55.7%	+2.2 pp	1.73
Both teams not to score	42.0%	44.3%	−2.2 pp	2.38
Dundee FC 2+ goals	35.7%	37.5%	−1.8 pp	2.80
Dundee FC at most 1 goal	64.3%	62.5%	+1.8 pp	1.55
Hibernian 2+ goals	38.9%	44.3%	−5.4 pp	2.57
Hibernian at most 1 goal	61.1%	55.7%	+5.4 pp	1.64
Over 1.5 goals	76.7%	76.2%	+0.5 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.3%	23.8%	−0.5 pp	4.29
Over 2.5 goals	48.2%	52.6%	−4.5 pp	2.08
Under 2.5 goals	51.8%	47.4%	+4.5 pp	1.93

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Dundee FC sample: 20 matches
Hibernian sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.