Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeSt. Mirren 1:2 Celtic
Celtic were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Celtic's attack: 2.93 xG against 1.53 projected (+1.40). St. Mirren produced 1.74 xG against 0.98 projected (+0.76).
Goals
- 22' Nikolas Agrafiotis (pen.) St. Mirren · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
- 51' Liam Scales Celtic · 0.02 xG chance 1–1
- 68' Yang Hyun-Jun Celtic · 0.57 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- St. Mirren
- 21%
- Draw
- 30%
- Celtic
- 49% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Celtic produced 1.40 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 23
- On target
- 6
- 8
- Inside the box
- 8
- 20
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 0.80
- 2.47
- Set-piece xG
- 0.13
- 0.40
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.95 for St. Mirren and 2.93 for Celtic.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
42 shots · 4.62 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- St. Mirren
- Celtic
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.48 xG created 0.88 xGA
2.95 xG created 0.78 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic not to score | 8.00 | +51.6% | Lost |
| Celtic at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +39.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | +38.9% | Lost |
| St. Mirren to win | 6.50 | +38.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.50 | +34.5% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.50 | +33.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mirren | 21.3% | 14.4% | +6.9 pp | 4.69 |
| Draw | 29.9% | 20.8% | +9.1 pp | 3.35 |
| Celtic | 48.8% | 64.8% | −16.0 pp | 2.05 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mirren to score | 65.4% | 62.5% | +2.9 pp | 1.53 |
| St. Mirren not to score | 34.6% | 37.5% | −2.9 pp | 2.89 |
| Celtic to score | 81.1% | 88.1% | −7.0 pp | 1.23 |
| Celtic not to score | 18.9% | 11.9% | +7.0 pp | 5.28 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 57.7% | −2.9 pp | 1.83 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.2% | 42.3% | +2.9 pp | 2.21 |
| St. Mirren 2+ goals | 25.7% | 26.9% | −1.1 pp | 3.89 |
| St. Mirren at most 1 goal | 74.3% | 73.1% | +1.1 pp | 1.35 |
| Celtic 2+ goals | 46.8% | 64.5% | −17.8 pp | 2.14 |
| Celtic at most 1 goal | 53.2% | 35.5% | +17.8 pp | 1.88 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | 82.8% | −7.0 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.2% | 17.2% | +7.0 pp | 4.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 63.6% | −16.5 pp | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 36.4% | +16.5 pp | 1.89 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- St. Mirren sample
- 20 matches
- Celtic sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.