St. Mirren 3:3 Motherwell: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Scottish Premiership

St. Mirren Home 2.32 xG · 23 shots

Motherwell Away 2.11 xG · 22 shots

33 The chances were evenly matched

Motherwell were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. It finished 3–3. The biggest difference was St. Mirren's attack: 2.32 xG against 1.02 projected (+1.30). Motherwell produced 2.11 xG against 1.09 projected (+1.02).

Goals

2' Tawanda Maswanhise Motherwell · 0.32 xG chance 0–1
24' Regan Charles-Cook Motherwell · 0.03 xG chance 0–2
39' Paul Nsio St. Mirren · 0.16 xG chance 1–2
44' Declan John St. Mirren · 0.09 xG chance 2–2
45' Samuel Ramos St. Mirren · 0.45 xG chance 3–2
90' Jardell Kanga Motherwell · 0.05 xG chance 3–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

St. Mirren: 31%
Draw: 35% What happened
Motherwell: 35%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

St. Mirren 1.02 2.32 +1.30

Motherwell 1.09 2.11 +1.02

St. Mirren produced 1.30 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

St. Mirren Motherwell

Shots: 23; 22
On target: 9; 7
Inside the box: 17; 16
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.66; 1.00
Set-piece xG: 0.63; 0.37
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.27 for St. Mirren and 1.38 for Motherwell.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

45 shots · 4.48 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

St. Mirren
Motherwell
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

St. Mirren

1.14 xG created 0.74 xGA

L 0.60 created, 0.54 conceded against Dundee FC
L 0.78 created, 1.15 conceded against Kilmarnock
W 1.46 created, 0.52 conceded against Aberdeen
D 1.00 created, 0.36 conceded against Dundee United
W 1.64 created, 0.71 conceded against Falkirk FC
W 1.36 created, 1.13 conceded against St. Johnstone

Motherwell

1.11 xG created 1.23 xGA

L 1.06 created, 1.88 conceded against Falkirk FC
D 0.45 created, 1.09 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
L 1.21 created, 1.37 conceded against Celtic
W 1.07 created, 0.70 conceded against Hibernian
W 2.00 created, 1.92 conceded against Hibernian
D 0.89 created, 0.44 conceded against Falkirk FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

St. Mirren: 0 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on St. Mirren against Motherwell before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	+23.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.75	+17.1%	Lost
St. Mirren not to score	3.50	+16.9%	Lost
Draw	3.40	+14.6%	Won
St. Mirren at most 1 goal	1.53	+12.0%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.05	+6.0%	Lost
Motherwell at most 1 goal	1.53	+5.1%	Lost
Motherwell not to score	3.50	+3.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
St. Mirren	30.5%	36.7%	−6.2 pp	3.28
Draw	34.7%	27.6%	+7.2 pp	2.88
Motherwell	34.7%	35.7%	−1.0 pp	2.88

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
St. Mirren to score	66.6%	73.1%	−6.5 pp	1.50
St. Mirren not to score	33.4%	26.9%	+6.5 pp	3.00
Motherwell to score	69.4%	73.1%	−3.7 pp	1.44
Motherwell not to score	30.6%	26.9%	+3.7 pp	3.27
Both teams to score	48.3%	54.7%	−6.4 pp	2.07
Both teams not to score	51.7%	45.3%	+6.4 pp	1.93
St. Mirren 2+ goals	27.0%	39.2%	−12.3 pp	3.71
St. Mirren at most 1 goal	73.0%	60.8%	+12.3 pp	1.37
Motherwell 2+ goals	30.0%	39.2%	−9.3 pp	3.34
Motherwell at most 1 goal	70.0%	60.8%	+9.3 pp	1.43
Over 1.5 goals	66.5%	74.5%	−7.9 pp	1.50
Under 1.5 goals	33.5%	25.5%	+7.9 pp	2.99
Over 2.5 goals	35.4%	50.0%	−14.6 pp	2.83
Under 2.5 goals	64.6%	50.0%	+14.6 pp	1.55

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
St. Mirren sample: 20 matches
Motherwell sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.