Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 15:00
28d 7h to kick-offLazio – Cagliari
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Lazio
- 49%
- Draw
- 31%
- Cagliari
- 21%
| Lazio | Draw | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.05 | 3.28 | 4.85 |
- Total goals
- 2.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Lazio
49% Lazio to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 17th
- Lazio attack v Cagliari defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 17th
- Lazio defence v Cagliari attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.18 vs -0.38
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.49 – 0.93
- Lazio v Cagliari
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lazio | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.55 · 9th | 1.09 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.24 · 6th | 1.76 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.30 · 9th | -0.66 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.62 · 8th | 1.11 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.18 | -0.38 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Lazio clean sheet
- 36%
- Lazio 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.8%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:0
- 10.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lazio sample
- 20 matches
- Cagliari sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lazio
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Cagliari
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.