Lecce 1:2 Parma: xG & match report · Serie A

Sunday, 11/01/2026 at 12:30

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Lecce Home 0.85 xG · 10 shots

Parma Away 1.04 xG · 13 shots

12 The chances were evenly matched

Goals

1' Nikola Štulić Lecce · 0.23 xG chance 1–0
64' Tiago Gabriel (o.g.) Parma · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
72' Mateo Pellegrino Parma · 0.22 xG chance 1–2

The shots behind it

Lecce Parma

Shots: 10; 13
On target: 1; 3
Inside the box: 6; 6
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.65; 0.85
Set-piece xG: 0.22; 0.26
Penalties: —; —

Lecce's shots add up to 0.87 xG and Parma's to 1.11; the published figures are 0.85 and 1.04.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 1.98 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Lecce
Parma
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lecce

0.95 xG created 1.63 xGA

W 1.00 created, 1.74 conceded against Torino
L 0.92 created, 2.08 conceded against Cremonese
W 2.20 created, 0.22 conceded against Pisa
L 0.76 created, 1.63 conceded against Como
D 0.26 created, 2.77 conceded against Juventus
L 0.55 created, 1.33 conceded against Roma

Parma

0.95 xG created 1.55 xGA

L 0.96 created, 1.74 conceded against Udinese
W 1.18 created, 1.52 conceded against Pisa
L 1.08 created, 1.35 conceded against Lazio
W 0.95 created, 1.23 conceded against Fiorentina
D 1.20 created, 0.86 conceded against Sassuolo
L 0.33 created, 2.57 conceded against Inter

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Lecce: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Parma 0:1 Lecce 04/10/2025 xG 0.59 – 0.50

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.