Asteras Aktor 0:2 Iraklis 1908: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Super League Greece

Asteras Aktor Home 0.99 xG · 14 shots

Iraklis 1908 Away 0.92 xG · 6 shots

02 The chances were evenly matched

Asteras Aktor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. Iraklis 1908 won 2–0. The biggest difference was Asteras Aktor's attack: 0.99 xG against 1.32 projected (−0.33).

Goals

8' Yoel Bárcenas Iraklis 1908 · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
73' Ivi López (pen.) Iraklis 1908 · 0.82 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Asteras Aktor: 45%
Draw: 33%
Iraklis 1908: 22% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Asteras Aktor 1.32 0.99 -0.33

Iraklis 1908 0.88 0.92 +0.04

Asteras Aktor produced 0.33 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Asteras Aktor Iraklis 1908

Shots: 14; 6
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 11; 3
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.17
Open play xG: 0.80; 0.06
Set-piece xG: 0.10; 0.15
Penalties: 0; 1

Asteras Aktor's shots add up to 0.90 xG and Iraklis 1908's to 1.03; the published figures are 0.99 and 0.92.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 1.93 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Asteras Aktor
Iraklis 1908
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Asteras Aktor

1.30 xG created 1.06 xGA

D 0.83 created, 0.79 conceded against AE Larisa
W 1.42 created, 0.70 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
D 1.69 created, 0.44 conceded against AE Kifisia
W 1.86 created, 2.23 conceded against Panetolikos
L 1.19 created, 0.50 conceded against Panetolikos
L 0.83 created, 1.70 conceded against Olympiacos FC

Iraklis 1908

0.43 xG created 1.63 xGA

L 0.38 created, 2.06 conceded against AEK Athens
D 0.48 created, 1.19 conceded against NPS Volos

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Asteras Aktor against Iraklis 1908 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+11.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Asteras Aktor	45.3%	49.7%	−4.4 pp	2.21
Draw	32.6%	27.8%	+4.9 pp	3.06
Iraklis 1908	22.0%	22.5%	−0.4 pp	4.54

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	48.7%	48.0%	+0.7 pp	2.05
Both teams not to score	51.3%	52.0%	−0.7 pp	1.95
Over 1.5 goals	68.9%	66.3%	+2.6 pp	1.45
Under 1.5 goals	31.1%	33.7%	−2.6 pp	3.22
Over 2.5 goals	38.3%	41.8%	−3.5 pp	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	61.7%	58.2%	+3.5 pp	1.62

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Asteras Aktor sample: 20 matches
Iraklis 1908 sample: 2 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Iraklis 1908 has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.