xgEdge

Expected goals

MGS Panserraikos expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Super League Greece · after 36 matches · updated 1 Oct

MGS Panserraikos's attacking and defensive expected goals in Super League Greece 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

MGS Panserraikos xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.76 xG per match
#14/14
Attack (xG per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 1.93
#2 AEK Athens 1.86
#3 PAOK 1.72
#4 APO Levadiakos 1.69
#5 Panathinaikos 1.50
#6 AE Kifisia 1.25
#7 Atromitos Athens 1.22
#8 Aris Thessaloniki 1.19
#9 NPS Volos 1.19
#10 OFI Crete 1.09
#11 AE Larisa 1.03
#12 Asteras Aktor 1.00
#13 Panetolikos 0.95
#14 MGS Panserraikos 0.76
League avg
1.30
Total
27.20 36 matches
Defence
1.60 xGA per match
#13/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.62
#2 PAOK 0.87
#3 AEK Athens 0.94
#4 Panathinaikos 1.13
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 1.18
#6 APO Levadiakos 1.26
#7 Atromitos Athens 1.35
#8 AE Kifisia 1.35
#9 Asteras Aktor 1.38
#10 AE Larisa 1.55
#11 NPS Volos 1.60
#12 Panetolikos 1.60
#13 MGS Panserraikos 1.60
#14 OFI Crete 1.61
League avg
1.30
Total
57.76 36 matches
xG difference
-0.85 xGD per match
#14/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Olympiacos FC +1.31
#2 AEK Athens +0.92
#3 PAOK +0.85
#4 APO Levadiakos +0.44
#5 Panathinaikos +0.37
#6 Aris Thessaloniki +0.00
#7 AE Kifisia -0.10
#8 Atromitos Athens -0.13
#9 Asteras Aktor -0.38
#10 NPS Volos -0.42
#11 AE Larisa -0.52
#12 OFI Crete -0.52
#13 Panetolikos -0.66
#14 MGS Panserraikos -0.85
League avg
0.00
Total
-30.56 36 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.87 xPts per match
#14/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 2.21
#2 AEK Athens 1.98
#3 PAOK 1.98
#4 Panathinaikos 1.63
#5 APO Levadiakos 1.58
#6 Aris Thessaloniki 1.38
#7 AE Kifisia 1.33
#8 Atromitos Athens 1.31
#9 Asteras Aktor 1.12
#10 NPS Volos 1.08
#11 OFI Crete 1.07
#12 AE Larisa 1.06
#13 Panetolikos 1.00
#14 MGS Panserraikos 0.87
League avg
1.39
Total
31.43 vs 29 actual pts

What the xG says

MGS Panserraikos's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Super League Greece. They rank #14 for xG difference at -0.85 per match, from the league's lowest shot volume and low chance quality. Their 25 goals are 2.20 below 27.20 xG, while 29 points are 2.43 below 31.43 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.94 xG from penalties
25 27.20 -2.20 scored 2.20 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
73 57.76 +15.24 conceded 15.24 more than xGA far outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
29 31.43 -2.43 2.43 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

MGS Panserraikos are 2.20 goals below their xG after 36 matches. The gap was widest at -2.66, against AE Larisa on Sat 24/01.

Goals
25
xG
27.20
Gap
-2.20
Sun 24/08 Sat 30/08 Sat 13/09 Sat 20/09 Sat 27/09 Sat 04/10 Sun 19/10 Sat 25/10 Sun 02/11 Sun 09/11 Sun 23/11 Sat 29/11 Mon 08/12 Sat 13/12 Mon 22/12 Sun 11/01 Sat 17/01 Sat 24/01 Sun 01/02 Sun 08/02 Mon 16/02 Sun 22/02 Sun 01/03 Sun 08/03 Sat 14/03 Sun 22/03 Sat 04/04 Wed 08/04 Sat 18/04 Wed 22/04 Sun 26/04 Sat 02/05 Sat 09/05 Tue 12/05 Sun 17/05 Thu 21/05 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.45 -0.95 -1.04 -1.03 -0.43 +0.90 +0.71 +0.31 +0.02 +1.20 +0.71 +0.42 -0.38 -1.44 -2.22 -2.35 -1.94 -2.66 -2.28 -2.62 -1.38 -0.62 +0.08 +0.42 -1.91 -2.53 -1.33 -1.96 -0.41 -1.26 -0.60 -1.05 -0.81 -1.51 -1.91 -2.20 -0.45 -0.50 -0.09 +0.01 +0.60 +1.33 -0.19 -0.40 -0.29 +1.18 -0.49 -0.29 -0.80 -1.06 -0.78 -0.13 +0.41 -0.72 +0.38 -0.34 +1.24 +0.76 +0.70 +0.34 -2.33 -0.62 +1.20 -0.63 +1.55 -0.85 +0.66 -0.45 +0.24 -0.70 -0.40 -0.29 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
MGS Panserraikos: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 24/08 AEK Athens 0 0.45 -0.45 -0.45
Sat 30/08 OFI Crete 0 0.50 -0.50 -0.95
Sat 13/09 Olympiacos FC 0 0.09 -0.09 -1.04
Sat 20/09 Atromitos Athens 1 0.99 +0.01 -1.03
Sat 27/09 Aris Thessaloniki 1 0.40 +0.60 -0.43
Sat 04/10 Asteras Aktor 2 0.67 +1.33 +0.90
Sun 19/10 NPS Volos 1 1.19 -0.19 +0.71
Sat 25/10 AE Larisa 0 0.40 -0.40 +0.31
Sun 02/11 PAOK 0 0.29 -0.29 +0.02
Sun 09/11 APO Levadiakos 2 0.82 +1.18 +1.20
Sun 23/11 Panathinaikos 0 0.49 -0.49 +0.71
Sat 29/11 AE Kifisia 0 0.29 -0.29 +0.42
Mon 08/12 Panetolikos 0 0.80 -0.80 -0.38
Sat 13/12 OFI Crete 0 1.06 -1.06 -1.44
Mon 22/12 APO Levadiakos 0 0.78 -0.78 -2.22
Sun 11/01 Panathinaikos 0 0.13 -0.13 -2.35
Sat 17/01 AE Kifisia 2 1.59 +0.41 -1.94
Sat 24/01 AE Larisa 0 0.72 -0.72 -2.66
Sun 01/02 PAOK 1 0.62 +0.38 -2.28
Sun 08/02 AEK Athens 0 0.34 -0.34 -2.62
Mon 16/02 Atromitos Athens 2 0.76 +1.24 -1.38
Sun 22/02 NPS Volos 2 1.24 +0.76 -0.62
Sun 01/03 Olympiacos FC 1 0.30 +0.70 +0.08
Sun 08/03 Asteras Aktor 1 0.66 +0.34 +0.42
Sat 14/03 Aris Thessaloniki 0 2.33 -2.33 -1.91
Sun 22/03 Panetolikos 0 0.62 -0.62 -2.53
Sat 04/04 AE Kifisia 2 0.80 +1.20 -1.33
Wed 08/04 Asteras Aktor 0 0.63 -0.63 -1.96
Sat 18/04 Panetolikos 3 1.45 +1.55 -0.41
Wed 22/04 Atromitos Athens 0 0.85 -0.85 -1.26
Sun 26/04 AE Larisa 1 0.34 +0.66 -0.60
Sat 02/05 AE Larisa 1 1.45 -0.45 -1.05
Sat 09/05 AE Kifisia 1 0.76 +0.24 -0.81
Tue 12/05 Asteras Aktor 0 0.70 -0.70 -1.51
Sun 17/05 Panetolikos 1 1.40 -0.40 -1.91
Thu 21/05 Atromitos Athens 0 0.29 -0.29 -2.20

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

MGS Panserraikos xG trend

Current form -0.65 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 11 of 36 matches. The worst was against Olympiacos FC on Sat 13/09 (-3.29).

npxG · last 6
0.70
npxGA · last 6
1.35
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -2.59 Sun 24/08 -0.61 Sat 30/08 -3.29 Sat 13/09 +0.64 Sat 20/09 -0.96 Sat 27/09 -0.11 Sat 04/10 -1.65 Sun 19/10 -1.11 Sat 25/10 -1.51 Sun 02/11 -1.66 Sun 09/11 -1.79 Sun 23/11 -1.08 Sat 29/11 +0.44 Mon 08/12 -1.65 Sat 13/12 -1.49 Mon 22/12 -2.82 Sun 11/01 +1.14 Sat 17/01 -0.83 Sat 24/01 -0.82 Sun 01/02 -2.55 Sun 08/02 +0.04 Mon 16/02 +0.29 Sun 22/02 -2.20 Sun 01/03 +0.41 Sun 08/03 +1.84 Sat 14/03 -0.57 Sun 22/03 -0.07 Sat 04/04 +0.35 Wed 08/04 +0.48 Sat 18/04 -0.81 Wed 22/04 -0.13 Sun 26/04 +0.23 Sat 02/05 -1.02 Sat 09/05 -0.69 Tue 12/05 +0.15 Sun 17/05 -2.42 Thu 21/05 -0.79 season avg
MGS Panserraikos: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 24/08 AEK Athens 0.45 3.04 -2.59 -2.59
Sat 30/08 OFI Crete 0.50 1.11 -0.61 -1.60
Sat 13/09 Olympiacos FC 0.09 3.38 -3.29 -2.16
Sat 20/09 Atromitos Athens 0.99 0.35 +0.64 -1.46
Sat 27/09 Aris Thessaloniki 0.40 1.36 -0.96 -1.36
Sat 04/10 Asteras Aktor 0.67 0.78 -0.11 -1.15
Sun 19/10 NPS Volos 1.19 2.84 -1.65 -1.22
Sat 25/10 AE Larisa 0.40 1.51 -1.11 -1.21
Sun 02/11 PAOK 0.29 1.80 -1.51 -1.24
Sun 09/11 APO Levadiakos 0.82 2.48 -1.66 -1.28
Sun 23/11 Panathinaikos 0.49 2.28 -1.79 -1.33
Sat 29/11 AE Kifisia 0.29 1.37 -1.08 -1.31
Mon 08/12 Panetolikos 0.80 0.36 +0.44 -1.18
Sat 13/12 OFI Crete 1.06 2.71 -1.65 -1.21
Mon 22/12 APO Levadiakos 0.78 2.27 -1.49 -1.23
Sun 11/01 Panathinaikos 0.13 2.95 -2.82 -1.33
Sat 17/01 AE Kifisia 1.59 0.45 +1.14 -1.18
Sat 24/01 AE Larisa 0.72 1.55 -0.83 -1.16
Sun 01/02 PAOK 0.62 1.44 -0.82 -1.14
Sun 08/02 AEK Athens 0.34 2.89 -2.55 -1.21
Mon 16/02 Atromitos Athens 0.76 0.72 +0.04 -1.16
Sun 22/02 NPS Volos 1.24 0.95 +0.29 -1.09
Sun 01/03 Olympiacos FC 0.17 2.37 -2.20 -1.14
Sun 08/03 Asteras Aktor 0.66 0.25 +0.41 -1.07
Sat 14/03 Aris Thessaloniki 2.33 0.49 +1.84 -0.96
Sun 22/03 Panetolikos 0.56 1.13 -0.57 -0.94
Sat 04/04 AE Kifisia 0.80 0.87 -0.07 -0.91
Wed 08/04 Asteras Aktor 0.63 0.28 +0.35 -0.86
Sat 18/04 Panetolikos 1.45 0.97 +0.48 -0.82
Wed 22/04 Atromitos Athens 0.85 1.66 -0.81 -0.82
Sun 26/04 AE Larisa 0.34 0.47 -0.13 -0.80
Sat 02/05 AE Larisa 0.67 0.44 +0.23 -0.76
Sat 09/05 AE Kifisia 0.75 1.77 -1.02 -0.77
Tue 12/05 Asteras Aktor 0.73 1.42 -0.69 -0.77
Sun 17/05 Panetolikos 1.41 1.26 +0.15 -0.74
Thu 21/05 Atromitos Athens 0.29 2.71 -2.42 -0.79

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.73 npxG and 1.52 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 8 hardest of 14 in Super League Greece
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 36 league matches
Last 5
number 8 hardest of 14 in Super League Greece
−0.22 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 36 matches · tied number 8 hardest of 14

  1. Atromitos Athens Away 0.00
  2. Panetolikos Home −0.46
  3. Asteras Aktor Away −0.20
  4. AE Kifisia Home −0.15
  5. AE Larisa Home −0.27
  6. AE Larisa Away −0.27
  7. Atromitos Athens Home 0.00
  8. Panetolikos Away −0.46
  9. Asteras Aktor Home −0.20
  10. AE Kifisia Away −0.15
  11. Panetolikos Away −0.46
  12. Aris Thessaloniki Home +0.04
  13. Asteras Aktor Away −0.20
  14. Olympiacos FC Home +1.02
  15. NPS Volos Home −0.50
  16. Atromitos Athens Away 0.00
  17. AEK Athens Home +0.72
  18. PAOK Away +0.42
  19. AE Larisa Away −0.27
  20. AE Kifisia Home −0.15
  21. Panathinaikos Away +0.26
  22. APO Levadiakos Home −0.12
  23. OFI Crete Away −0.30
  24. Panetolikos Home −0.46
  25. AE Kifisia Away −0.15
  26. Panathinaikos Home +0.26
  27. APO Levadiakos Away −0.12
  28. PAOK Home +0.42
  29. AE Larisa Home −0.27
  30. NPS Volos Away −0.50
  31. Asteras Aktor Home −0.20
  32. Aris Thessaloniki Away +0.04
  33. Atromitos Athens Home 0.00
  34. Olympiacos FC Away +1.02
  35. OFI Crete Home −0.30
  36. AEK Athens Away +0.72

Last 5

−0.22 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 8 hardest of 14

  1. Atromitos Athens Away 0.00
  2. Panetolikos Home −0.46
  3. Asteras Aktor Away −0.20
  4. AE Kifisia Home −0.15
  5. AE Larisa Home −0.27

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

MGS Panserraikos shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. MGS Panserraikos take 8.0 shots a match (league 11.9) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #14 in Super League Greece for volume and #10 for quality. 61% of their shots come from inside the box (league 62%).

Attack

Shot volume
8.0 shots per match
#14/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 18.0
#2 AEK Athens 14.9
#3 Aris Thessaloniki 13.8
#4 AE Kifisia 13.4
#5 PAOK 13.2
#6 Panathinaikos 12.6
#7 AE Larisa 11.3
#8 APO Levadiakos 11.2
#9 NPS Volos 11.1
#10 Atromitos Athens 10.8
#11 Asteras Aktor 9.9
#12 OFI Crete 9.5
#13 Panetolikos 9.4
#14 MGS Panserraikos 8.0
League avg
11.9
Total
288 shots from 36 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#10/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 APO Levadiakos 0.15
#2 PAOK 0.12
#3 AEK Athens 0.12
#4 Panathinaikos 0.12
#5 OFI Crete 0.12
#6 Atromitos Athens 0.11
#7 Olympiacos FC 0.11
#8 NPS Volos 0.10
#9 Asteras Aktor 0.10
#10 MGS Panserraikos 0.09
#11 AE Kifisia 0.09
#12 AE Larisa 0.09
#13 Panetolikos 0.09
#14 Aris Thessaloniki 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
26.26 npxG from 288 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.8 shots per match
#13/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 6.3
#2 PAOK 8.7
#3 AEK Athens 9.2
#4 Panathinaikos 9.4
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 10.8
#6 Atromitos Athens 11.4
#7 AE Kifisia 12.4
#8 APO Levadiakos 12.7
#9 NPS Volos 13.0
#10 Asteras Aktor 13.1
#11 AE Larisa 13.6
#12 Panetolikos 13.9
#13 MGS Panserraikos 14.8
#14 OFI Crete 15.8
League avg
11.9
Total
531 shots allowed from 36 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#7/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.10
#2 Asteras Aktor 0.10
#3 APO Levadiakos 0.10
#4 OFI Crete 0.10
#5 AEK Athens 0.10
#6 PAOK 0.10
#7 MGS Panserraikos 0.10
#8 Aris Thessaloniki 0.11
#9 AE Kifisia 0.11
#10 AE Larisa 0.11
#11 Atromitos Athens 0.11
#12 Panetolikos 0.11
#13 Panathinaikos 0.12
#14 NPS Volos 0.12
League avg
0.11
Total
54.68 npxGA from 531 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

61% inside the box

League avg 62%

From 176 of 288 shots over 36 matches

Shots allowed, location

61% allowed inside the box

League avg 62%

From 326 of 531 shots allowed over 36 matches

How the shot figures are made →

MGS Panserraikos home and away xG

MGS Panserraikos per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 18 18
xG / match 0.88 0.63
xGA / match 1.36 1.85
xGD / match -0.48 -1.22
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.12 0.62

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every MGS Panserraikos match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
36
xG / match
0.76
xGA / match
1.60
xGD / match
-0.85
Points
29 of 108
  1. Thu 21/05 Atromitos Athens A xG 0.29 xGA 2.71 xGD -2.42
  2. Sun 17/05 Panetolikos H xG 1.40 xGA 1.27 xGD +0.13
  3. Tue 12/05 Asteras Aktor A xG 0.70 xGA 1.42 xGD -0.72
  4. Sat 09/05 AE Kifisia H xG 0.76 xGA 1.75 xGD -0.99
  5. Sat 02/05 AE Larisa H xG 1.45 P xGA 0.38 xGD +1.07
  6. Sun 26/04 AE Larisa A xG 0.34 xGA 0.47 xGD -0.13
  7. Wed 22/04 Atromitos Athens H xG 0.85 xGA 2.41 P xGD -1.56
  8. Sat 18/04 Panetolikos A xG 1.45 xGA 0.98 xGD +0.47
  9. Wed 08/04 Asteras Aktor H xG 0.63 xGA 0.28 xGD +0.35
  10. Sat 04/04 AE Kifisia A xG 0.80 xGA 1.66 P xGD -0.86
  11. Sun 22/03 Panetolikos A xG 0.62 xGA 1.13 xGD -0.51
  12. Sat 14/03 Aris Thessaloniki H Best underlying xG 2.33 xGA 0.49 xGD +1.84
  13. Sun 08/03 Asteras Aktor A xG 0.66 xGA 0.29 xGD +0.37
  14. Sun 01/03 Olympiacos FC H xG 0.30 xGA 2.36 xGD -2.06
  15. Sun 22/02 NPS Volos H xG 1.24 xGA 0.95 xGD +0.29
  16. Mon 16/02 Atromitos Athens A xG 0.76 xGA 1.51 P xGD -0.75
  17. Sun 08/02 AEK Athens H Weakest underlying xG 0.34 xGA 3.67 P xGD -3.33
  18. Sun 01/02 PAOK A xG 0.62 xGA 1.44 xGD -0.82
  19. Sat 24/01 AE Larisa A xG 0.72 xGA 1.55 xGD -0.83
  20. Sat 17/01 AE Kifisia H xG 1.59 xGA 0.45 xGD +1.14
  21. Sun 11/01 Panathinaikos A xG 0.13 xGA 2.95 xGD -2.82
  22. Mon 22/12 APO Levadiakos H xG 0.78 xGA 2.27 xGD -1.49
  23. Sat 13/12 OFI Crete A xG 1.06 xGA 2.71 xGD -1.65
  24. Mon 08/12 Panetolikos H xG 0.80 xGA 0.36 xGD +0.44
  25. Sat 29/11 AE Kifisia A xG 0.29 xGA 1.37 xGD -1.08
  26. Sun 23/11 Panathinaikos H xG 0.49 xGA 2.28 xGD -1.79
  27. Sun 09/11 APO Levadiakos A xG 0.82 xGA 2.48 xGD -1.66
  28. Sun 02/11 PAOK H xG 0.29 xGA 1.80 xGD -1.51
  29. Sat 25/10 AE Larisa H xG 0.40 xGA 1.51 xGD -1.11
  30. Sun 19/10 NPS Volos A xG 1.19 xGA 2.84 xGD -1.65
  31. Sat 04/10 Asteras Aktor H xG 0.67 xGA 0.78 xGD -0.11
  32. Sat 27/09 Aris Thessaloniki A xG 0.40 xGA 1.36 xGD -0.96
  33. Sat 20/09 Atromitos Athens H xG 0.99 xGA 0.35 xGD +0.64
  34. Sat 13/09 Olympiacos FC A xG 0.09 xGA 3.38 xGD -3.29
  35. Sat 30/08 OFI Crete H xG 0.50 xGA 1.11 xGD -0.61
  36. Sun 24/08 AEK Athens A xG 0.45 xGA 3.04 xGD -2.59

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.67. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

MGS Panserraikos in Super League Greece

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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