Panetolikos 2:0 PS Kalamata: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Super League Greece

Panetolikos Home 2.46 xG · 20 shots

PS Kalamata Away 1.02 xG · 11 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

PS Kalamata were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 34%. Panetolikos won 2–0. The biggest difference was Panetolikos's attack: 2.46 xG against 1.10 projected (+1.36).

Goals

26' Gustav Granath Panetolikos · 0.57 xG chance 1–0
90' Salifou Soumah Panetolikos · 0.16 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Panetolikos: 32% What happened
Draw: 34%
PS Kalamata: 34%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Panetolikos 1.10 2.46 +1.36

PS Kalamata 1.15 1.02 -0.13

Panetolikos produced 1.36 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Panetolikos PS Kalamata

Shots: 20; 11
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 15; 4
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.51; 0.42
Set-piece xG: 0.96; 0.62
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.49 for Panetolikos and 1.02 for PS Kalamata.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.51 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Panetolikos
PS Kalamata
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Panetolikos

1.13 xG created 1.28 xGA

L 0.15 created, 1.38 conceded against AE Kifisia
W 1.08 created, 0.95 conceded against Atromitos Athens
D 1.56 created, 0.90 conceded against AE Larisa
D 1.27 created, 1.40 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
L 2.23 created, 1.86 conceded against Asteras Aktor
W 0.50 created, 1.19 conceded against Asteras Aktor

PS Kalamata

1.41 xG created 2.69 xGA

L 1.41 created, 2.69 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Panetolikos against PS Kalamata before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
PS Kalamata to win	3.40	+16.7%	Lost
PS Kalamata 2+ goals	3.50	+12.6%	Lost
PS Kalamata to score	1.50	+6.5%	Lost
Draw	3.10	+4.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.00	+3.2%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.44	+1.2%	Won
Panetolikos at most 1 goal	1.44	+0.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Panetolikos	32.1%	41.9%	−9.8 pp	3.12
Draw	33.6%	30.4%	+3.2 pp	2.98
PS Kalamata	34.3%	27.7%	+6.6 pp	2.91

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Panetolikos to score	69.8%	70.9%	−1.1 pp	1.43
Panetolikos not to score	30.2%	29.1%	+1.1 pp	3.32
PS Kalamata to score	71.0%	62.5%	+8.5 pp	1.41
PS Kalamata not to score	29.0%	37.5%	−8.5 pp	3.45
Both teams to score	51.6%	46.7%	+4.9 pp	1.94
Both teams not to score	48.4%	53.3%	−4.9 pp	2.07
Panetolikos 2+ goals	30.4%	35.5%	−5.1 pp	3.29
Panetolikos at most 1 goal	69.6%	64.5%	+5.1 pp	1.44
PS Kalamata 2+ goals	32.2%	26.9%	+5.3 pp	3.11
PS Kalamata at most 1 goal	67.8%	73.1%	−5.3 pp	1.47
Over 1.5 goals	70.1%	64.5%	+5.6 pp	1.43
Under 1.5 goals	29.9%	35.5%	−5.6 pp	3.35
Over 2.5 goals	39.5%	39.0%	+0.6 pp	2.53
Under 2.5 goals	60.5%	61.0%	−0.6 pp	1.65

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Panetolikos sample: 20 matches
PS Kalamata sample: 1 match
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Warnings

PS Kalamata has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.