Çaykur Rizespor 0:1 Alanyaspor: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Çaykur Rizespor Home 1.28 xG · 21 shots

Alanyaspor Away 2.07 xG · 10 shots

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Çaykur Rizespor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. Alanyaspor won 1–0. The biggest difference was Alanyaspor's attack: 2.07 xG against 0.83 projected (+1.24).

Goals

70' Zakaria Ariss (o.g.) Alanyaspor · 0.10 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Çaykur Rizespor: 48%
Draw: 32%
Alanyaspor: 20% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Çaykur Rizespor 1.37 1.28 -0.09

Alanyaspor 0.83 2.07 +1.24

Alanyaspor produced 1.24 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Çaykur Rizespor Alanyaspor

Shots: 21; 10
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 8; 6
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.22
Open play xG: 0.91; 1.45
Set-piece xG: 0.41; 0.73
Penalties: —; —

Çaykur Rizespor's shots add up to 1.32 xG and Alanyaspor's to 2.18; the published figures are 1.28 and 2.07.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.50 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Çaykur Rizespor
Alanyaspor
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Çaykur Rizespor

1.59 xG created 1.11 xGA

W 1.40 created, 1.40 conceded against Konyaspor
L 0.75 created, 1.67 conceded against Eyüpspor
D 2.87 created, 1.82 conceded against Beşiktaş
W 1.52 created, 0.62 conceded against Konyaspor
L 1.85 created, 0.33 conceded against Samsunspor
W 1.17 created, 0.79 conceded against Gaziantep FK

Alanyaspor

1.03 xG created 1.22 xGA

D 0.94 created, 0.15 conceded against Antalyaspor
W 2.05 created, 1.88 conceded against Kayserispor
L 0.74 created, 1.78 conceded against Fatih Karagümrük
D 1.25 created, 1.28 conceded against Gaziantep FK
W 0.54 created, 0.74 conceded against Beşiktaş
L 0.66 created, 1.48 conceded against Eyüpspor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Çaykur Rizespor: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Çaykur Rizespor against Alanyaspor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+8.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.75	+8.2%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.40	+6.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Çaykur Rizespor	48.3%	51.4%	−3.1 pp	2.07
Draw	32.0%	27.2%	+4.7 pp	3.13
Alanyaspor	19.8%	21.4%	−1.6 pp	5.06

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	47.6%	51.5%	−3.8 pp	2.10
Both teams not to score	52.4%	48.5%	+3.8 pp	1.91
Over 1.5 goals	68.8%	72.3%	−3.6 pp	1.45
Under 1.5 goals	31.2%	27.7%	+3.6 pp	3.20
Over 2.5 goals	38.2%	46.1%	−7.9 pp	2.62
Under 2.5 goals	61.8%	53.9%	+7.9 pp	1.62

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Çaykur Rizespor sample: 20 matches
Alanyaspor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.