Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 11:30
33d 9h to kick-offÇaykur Rizespor – Erzurumspor FK
Model updated 6 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Çaykur Rizespor
- 49%
- Draw
- 31%
- Erzurumspor FK
- 20%
| Çaykur Rizespor | Draw | Erzurumspor FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.04 | 3.28 | 4.90 |
- Total goals
- 2.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Çaykur Rizespor
49% Çaykur Rizespor to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 8th
- Çaykur Rizespor attack v Erzurumspor FK defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 16th
- Çaykur Rizespor defence v Erzurumspor FK attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.12 vs -0.92
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.49 – 0.92
- Çaykur Rizespor v Erzurumspor FK
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 6 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Çaykur Rizespor | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.43 · 8th | 0.67 · 18th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.31 · 8th | 1.59 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.12 · 6th | -0.92 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.54 · 5th | 0.82 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.12 | -0.92 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Çaykur Rizespor clean sheet
- 37%
- Çaykur Rizespor 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.8%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:0
- 11.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Çaykur Rizespor sample
- 20 matches
- Erzurumspor FK sample
- 6 matches
- Home xG sample · Çaykur Rizespor
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Erzurumspor FK
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Erzurumspor FK has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.