Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeErzurumspor FK 1:0 Samsunspor
Erzurumspor FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Samsunspor's attack: 0.36 xG against 1.03 projected (−0.67). Erzurumspor FK produced 0.72 xG against 1.29 projected (−0.57).
Goals
- 45' Miguel Cardoso Erzurumspor FK · 0.15 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Erzurumspor FK
- 41% What happened
- Draw
- 33%
- Samsunspor
- 27%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Samsunspor produced 0.67 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 8
- On target
- 2
- 2
- Inside the box
- 6
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 0.64
- 0.17
- Set-piece xG
- 0.11
- 0.22
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.77 for Erzurumspor FK and 0.40 for Samsunspor.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
16 shots · 1.14 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Erzurumspor FK
- Samsunspor
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.66 xG created 1.84 xGA
1.45 xG created 1.77 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor at most 1 goal | 1.50 | +8.9% | Won |
| Samsunspor not to score | 3.25 | +7.1% | Won |
| Erzurumspor FK to win | 2.63 | +6.4% | Won |
| Draw | 3.20 | +4.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | +2.5% | Won |
| Erzurumspor FK to score | 1.33 | +0.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK | 40.6% | 35.5% | +5.1 pp | 2.47 |
| Draw | 32.6% | 29.1% | +3.5 pp | 3.07 |
| Samsunspor | 26.8% | 35.5% | −8.6 pp | 3.72 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK to score | 75.1% | 70.9% | +4.2 pp | 1.33 |
| Erzurumspor FK not to score | 24.9% | 29.1% | −4.2 pp | 4.02 |
| Samsunspor to score | 67.0% | 70.9% | −3.9 pp | 1.49 |
| Samsunspor not to score | 33.0% | 29.1% | +3.9 pp | 3.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 51.5% | +0.8 pp | 1.91 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.7% | 48.5% | −0.8 pp | 2.10 |
| Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals | 37.7% | 37.5% | +0.2 pp | 2.65 |
| Erzurumspor FK at most 1 goal | 62.3% | 62.5% | −0.2 pp | 1.61 |
| Samsunspor 2+ goals | 27.4% | 37.5% | −10.1 pp | 3.65 |
| Samsunspor at most 1 goal | 72.6% | 62.5% | +10.1 pp | 1.38 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | 72.3% | −0.8 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 27.7% | +0.8 pp | 3.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 46.1% | −4.6 pp | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 53.9% | +4.6 pp | 1.71 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Erzurumspor FK sample
- 5 matches
- Samsunspor sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Warnings
- Erzurumspor FK has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.