Erzurumspor FK 0:4 Galatasaray: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Süper Lig

Erzurumspor FK Home 0.48 xG · 12 shots

Galatasaray Away 3.08 xG · 10 shots

04 The scoreline reflected the chances

Galatasaray were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Galatasaray's attack: 3.08 xG against 1.35 projected (+1.73). Erzurumspor FK produced 0.48 xG against 0.99 projected (−0.51).

Goals

12' Roland Sallai Galatasaray · 0.21 xG chance 0–1
20' Yunus Akgün Galatasaray · 0.41 xG chance 0–2
45' Victor Osimhen Galatasaray · 0.61 xG chance 0–3
80' Victor Osimhen Galatasaray · 0.91 xG chance 0–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Erzurumspor FK: 25%
Draw: 32%
Galatasaray: 43% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Erzurumspor FK 0.99 0.48 -0.51

Galatasaray 1.35 3.08 +1.73

Galatasaray produced 1.73 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Erzurumspor FK Galatasaray

Shots: 12; 10
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 7; 9
xG per shot: 0.04; 0.26
Open play xG: 0.28; 2.30
Set-piece xG: 0.20; 0.28
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.56 for Galatasaray.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 3.06 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Erzurumspor FK
Galatasaray
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Erzurumspor FK

0.23 xG created 1.50 xGA

L 0.23 created, 1.50 conceded against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler

Galatasaray

2.24 xG created 0.79 xGA

W 2.19 created, 0.50 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
W 2.71 created, 1.25 conceded against Fenerbahçe
L 0.89 created, 1.37 conceded against Samsunspor
W 4.18 created, 0.38 conceded against Antalyaspor
L 0.55 created, 0.65 conceded against Kasımpaşa
D 2.90 created, 0.61 conceded against Çorum FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged0 won8 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Erzurumspor FK against Galatasaray before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Galatasaray not to score	8.00	+85.0%	Lost
Erzurumspor FK to win	6.25	+54.3%	Lost
Galatasaray at most 1 goal	2.50	+49.8%	Lost
Draw	4.20	+34.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+21.2%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+20.4%	Lost
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals	4.00	+4.4%	Lost
Erzurumspor FK to score	1.57	+3.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Erzurumspor FK	24.7%	15.0%	+9.7 pp	4.05
Draw	32.0%	22.4%	+9.7 pp	3.12
Galatasaray	43.3%	62.6%	−19.3 pp	2.31

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Erzurumspor FK to score	65.8%	58.9%	+6.9 pp	1.52
Erzurumspor FK not to score	34.2%	41.1%	−6.9 pp	2.92
Galatasaray to score	76.9%	88.1%	−11.2 pp	1.30
Galatasaray not to score	23.1%	11.9%	+11.2 pp	4.32
Both teams to score	52.4%	53.7%	−1.2 pp	1.91
Both teams not to score	47.6%	46.3%	+1.2 pp	2.10
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals	26.1%	23.4%	+2.7 pp	3.83
Erzurumspor FK at most 1 goal	73.9%	76.6%	−2.7 pp	1.35
Galatasaray 2+ goals	40.1%	62.5%	−22.4 pp	2.49
Galatasaray at most 1 goal	59.9%	37.5%	+22.4 pp	1.67
Over 1.5 goals	72.2%	78.3%	−6.1 pp	1.38
Under 1.5 goals	27.8%	21.7%	+6.1 pp	3.60
Over 2.5 goals	42.3%	55.3%	−13.0 pp	2.37
Under 2.5 goals	57.7%	44.7%	+13.0 pp	1.73

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Erzurumspor FK sample: 1 match
Galatasaray sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Erzurumspor FK has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.