Fenerbahçe 8:0 Eyüpspor: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Fenerbahçe Home 5.14 xG · 24 shots

Eyüpspor Away 0.72 xG · 17 shots

80 The scoreline reflected the chances

Fenerbahçe were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 62%. They won 8–0. The biggest difference was Fenerbahçe's attack: 5.14 xG against 1.75 projected (+3.39).

Goals

5' Mason Greenwood (pen.) Fenerbahçe · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
7' Vedat Muriqi Fenerbahçe · 0.75 xG chance 2–0
21' Vedat Muriqi Fenerbahçe · 0.81 xG chance 3–0
38' Mattéo Guendouzi Fenerbahçe · 0.05 xG chance 4–0
45' İrfan Can Kahveci Fenerbahçe · 0.06 xG chance 5–0
47' Vedat Muriqi Fenerbahçe · 0.05 xG chance 6–0
55' Vedat Muriqi Fenerbahçe · 0.27 xG chance 7–0
80' Mason Greenwood Fenerbahçe · 0.68 xG chance 8–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Fenerbahçe: 62% What happened
Draw: 26%
Eyüpspor: 12%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Fenerbahçe 1.75 5.14 +3.39

Eyüpspor 0.72 0.72 0.00

Fenerbahçe produced 3.39 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Fenerbahçe Eyüpspor

Shots: 24; 17
On target: 13; 6
Inside the box: 19; 7
xG per shot: 0.21; 0.05
Open play xG: 3.43; 0.37
Set-piece xG: 0.76; 0.40
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 4.30 for Fenerbahçe and 0.79 for Eyüpspor.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

41 shots · 5.78 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Fenerbahçe
Eyüpspor
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Fenerbahçe

1.68 xG created 1.09 xGA

D 1.33 created, 0.52 conceded against Eyüpspor
L 2.90 created, 1.19 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
W 2.36 created, 2.15 conceded against Konyaspor
W 1.56 created, 0.46 conceded against Samsunspor
L 0.59 created, 1.75 conceded against Beşiktaş
D 1.34 created, 0.49 conceded against Gaziantep FK

Eyüpspor

0.79 xG created 1.51 xGA

D 0.52 created, 1.33 conceded against Fenerbahçe
L 0.09 created, 1.28 conceded against Beşiktaş
L 0.49 created, 1.16 conceded against Gaziantep FK
W 1.48 created, 0.66 conceded against Alanyaspor
L 0.73 created, 2.58 conceded against Çorum FK
L 1.42 created, 2.05 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Fenerbahçe: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Fenerbahçe against Eyüpspor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Fenerbahçe not to score	13.00	+97.2%	Lost
Fenerbahçe at most 1 goal	3.75	+73.0%	Lost
Draw	6.50	+70.4%	Lost
Eyüpspor to win	13.00	+58.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+52.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+46.5%	Lost
Eyüpspor to score	1.91	+3.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fenerbahçe	61.6%	78.6%	−17.0 pp	1.62
Draw	26.2%	14.3%	+11.9 pp	3.81
Eyüpspor	12.2%	7.1%	+5.0 pp	8.21

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fenerbahçe to score	84.8%	92.6%	−7.8 pp	1.18
Fenerbahçe not to score	15.2%	7.4%	+7.8 pp	6.59
Eyüpspor to score	54.2%	48.5%	+5.7 pp	1.85
Eyüpspor not to score	45.8%	51.5%	−5.7 pp	2.18
Both teams to score	47.5%	46.3%	+1.2 pp	2.10
Both teams not to score	52.5%	53.7%	−1.2 pp	1.91
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals	53.9%	75.0%	−21.1 pp	1.86
Fenerbahçe at most 1 goal	46.1%	25.0%	+21.1 pp	2.17
Eyüpspor 2+ goals	15.5%	15.8%	−0.3 pp	6.46
Eyüpspor at most 1 goal	84.5%	84.2%	+0.3 pp	1.18
Over 1.5 goals	74.6%	84.2%	−9.7 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.4%	15.8%	+9.7 pp	3.93
Over 2.5 goals	45.7%	65.2%	−19.4 pp	2.19
Under 2.5 goals	54.3%	34.8%	+19.4 pp	1.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Fenerbahçe sample: 20 matches
Eyüpspor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.