Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeKocaelispor 2:0 Gaziantep FK
Kocaelispor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 2–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 56' Berkan Kutlu Kocaelispor · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
- 76' Dan Agyei Kocaelispor · 0.03 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Kocaelispor
- 38% What happened
- Draw
- 35%
- Gaziantep FK
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 16
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 12
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.10
- 0.68
- Set-piece xG
- 0.04
- 0.19
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.16 for Kocaelispor and 0.88 for Gaziantep FK.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 2.01 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Kocaelispor
- Gaziantep FK
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.87 xG created 1.46 xGA
- L 0.33 created, 1.35 conceded against Antalyaspor
- L 0.43 created, 1.96 conceded against Başakşehir FK
- W 1.31 created, 0.60 conceded against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
- W 0.76 created, 0.85 conceded against Konyaspor
- W 1.59 created, 1.74 conceded against Samsunspor
- L 0.82 created, 2.26 conceded against Galatasaray
1.04 xG created 1.62 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.62 | +7.3% | Won |
| Kocaelispor at most 1 goal | 1.53 | +5.3% | Lost |
| Kocaelispor not to score | 3.50 | +4.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 2.90 | +1.4% | Lost |
| Gaziantep FK at most 1 goal | 1.30 | +0.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | 38.2% | 38.3% | −0.1 pp | 2.62 |
| Draw | 35.0% | 32.4% | +2.6 pp | 2.86 |
| Gaziantep FK | 26.9% | 29.3% | −2.5 pp | 3.72 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor to score | 70.3% | 73.1% | −2.9 pp | 1.42 |
| Kocaelispor not to score | 29.7% | 26.9% | +2.9 pp | 3.36 |
| Gaziantep FK to score | 63.1% | 62.5% | +0.6 pp | 1.59 |
| Gaziantep FK not to score | 36.9% | 37.5% | −0.6 pp | 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 48.5% | −2.2 pp | 2.16 |
| Both teams not to score | 53.7% | 51.5% | +2.2 pp | 1.86 |
| Kocaelispor 2+ goals | 31.3% | 39.2% | −7.9 pp | 3.19 |
| Kocaelispor at most 1 goal | 68.7% | 60.8% | +7.9 pp | 1.46 |
| Gaziantep FK 2+ goals | 23.1% | 27.7% | −4.6 pp | 4.34 |
| Gaziantep FK at most 1 goal | 76.9% | 72.3% | +4.6 pp | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.8% | 66.3% | −1.5 pp | 1.54 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 33.7% | +1.5 pp | 2.84 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.5% | 41.8% | −8.2 pp | 2.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 66.5% | 58.2% | +8.2 pp | 1.50 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kocaelispor sample
- 20 matches
- Gaziantep FK sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.