Trabzonspor 2:0 Gaziantep FK: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 14:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Trabzonspor Home 1.23 xG · 18 shots

Gaziantep FK Away 0.67 xG · 13 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

Trabzonspor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Trabzonspor's attack: 1.23 xG against 1.87 projected (−0.64). Gaziantep FK produced 0.67 xG against 0.98 projected (−0.31).

Goals

45' Stefan Savić Trabzonspor · 0.20 xG chance 1–0
61' Ernest Muçi Trabzonspor · 0.03 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Trabzonspor: 58% What happened
Draw: 26%
Gaziantep FK: 16%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Trabzonspor 1.87 1.23 -0.64

Gaziantep FK 0.98 0.67 -0.31

Trabzonspor produced 0.64 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Trabzonspor Gaziantep FK

Shots: 18; 13
On target: 6; 6
Inside the box: 10; 7
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.05
Open play xG: 0.89; 0.65
Set-piece xG: 0.33; 0.03
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.23 for Trabzonspor and 0.67 for Gaziantep FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 1.90 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Trabzonspor
Gaziantep FK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Trabzonspor

2.20 xG created 1.20 xGA

W 3.21 created, 0.86 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
L 0.83 created, 1.01 conceded against Konyaspor
W 2.20 created, 0.96 conceded against Galatasaray
W 1.98 created, 1.37 conceded against Samsunspor
W 2.35 created, 1.19 conceded against Beşiktaş
W 2.63 created, 1.81 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor

Gaziantep FK

1.09 xG created 1.91 xGA

W 1.88 created, 3.26 conceded against Göztepe
D 0.49 created, 1.34 conceded against Fenerbahçe
L 1.03 created, 1.30 conceded against Kocaelispor
L 0.88 created, 2.42 conceded against Çorum FK
L 1.13 created, 2.03 conceded against Başakşehir FK
L 1.15 created, 1.09 conceded against Erzurumspor FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Trabzonspor: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 qualified edges flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Trabzonspor against Gaziantep FK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	6.25	+61.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.40	+50.7%	Won
Trabzonspor at most 1 goal	3.50	+47.9%	Lost
Trabzonspor not to score	11.00	+44.9%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	7.00	+29.3%	Lost
Gaziantep FK to win	7.50	+23.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Trabzonspor	57.7%	73.3%	−15.6 pp	1.73
Draw	25.8%	14.5%	+11.3 pp	3.87
Gaziantep FK	16.5%	12.1%	+4.3 pp	6.08

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Trabzonspor to score	86.8%	91.3%	−4.5 pp	1.15
Trabzonspor not to score	13.2%	8.7%	+4.5 pp	7.59
Gaziantep FK to score	65.1%	60.8%	+4.3 pp	1.54
Gaziantep FK not to score	34.9%	39.2%	−4.3 pp	2.86
Both teams to score	58.0%	55.7%	+2.3 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	42.0%	44.3%	−2.3 pp	2.38
Trabzonspor 2+ goals	57.7%	73.1%	−15.4 pp	1.73
Trabzonspor at most 1 goal	42.3%	26.9%	+15.4 pp	2.37
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals	25.4%	26.9%	−1.4 pp	3.93
Gaziantep FK at most 1 goal	74.6%	73.1%	+1.4 pp	1.34
Over 1.5 goals	81.5%	86.4%	−4.9 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.5%	13.6%	+4.9 pp	5.41
Over 2.5 goals	55.7%	71.8%	−16.2 pp	1.80
Under 2.5 goals	44.3%	28.2%	+16.2 pp	2.26

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Trabzonspor sample: 20 matches
Gaziantep FK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.