AC Horsens 2:3 Viborg FF: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

AC Horsens Home 0.83 xG · 9 shots

Viborg FF Away 1.92 xG · 12 shots

23 The scoreline reflected the chances

Viborg FF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Viborg FF's attack: 1.92 xG against 1.47 projected (+0.45). AC Horsens produced 0.83 xG against 1.24 projected (−0.41).

Goals

34' Dorian Hanza Viborg FF · 0.42 xG chance 0–1
45' Charly Nouck Viborg FF · 0.04 xG chance 0–2
47' Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan AC Horsens · 0.61 xG chance 1–2
55' Asker Beck Viborg FF · 0.09 xG chance 1–3
71' Ivan Miličević AC Horsens · 0.02 xG chance 2–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AC Horsens: 29%
Draw: 30%
Viborg FF: 41% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AC Horsens 1.24 0.83 -0.41

Viborg FF 1.47 1.92 +0.45

Viborg FF produced 0.45 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AC Horsens Viborg FF

Shots: 9; 12
On target: 5; 6
Inside the box: 3; 9
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.15
Open play xG: 0.12; 1.54
Set-piece xG: 0.69; 0.23
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.80 for AC Horsens and 1.80 for Viborg FF.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 2.58 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AC Horsens
Viborg FF
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AC Horsens

0.95 xG created 1.90 xGA

D 1.50 created, 2.66 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
L 0.41 created, 1.97 conceded against FC Midtjylland
L 0.49 created, 0.63 conceded against Brøndby IF
W 1.58 created, 1.37 conceded against Odense Boldklub
W 0.76 created, 2.87 conceded against Lyngby

Viborg FF

1.63 xG created 1.44 xGA

L 2.09 created, 2.70 conceded against AGF
W 2.04 created, 1.72 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 1.95 created, 1.34 conceded against Brøndby IF
D 1.47 created, 0.62 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
W 1.03 created, 1.92 conceded against AGF
W 1.19 created, 0.34 conceded against FC København

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AC Horsens against Viborg FF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
AC Horsens to win	4.50	+31.7%	Lost
Viborg FF not to score	6.00	+22.1%	Lost
Viborg FF at most 1 goal	2.20	+22.0%	Lost
Draw	3.80	+14.2%	Lost
AC Horsens 2+ goals	3.00	+7.3%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+5.0%	Lost
AC Horsens to score	1.40	+3.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Horsens	29.3%	20.7%	+8.6 pp	3.42
Draw	30.1%	24.5%	+5.6 pp	3.33
Viborg FF	40.7%	54.8%	−14.1 pp	2.46

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Horsens to score	73.9%	66.3%	+7.7 pp	1.35
AC Horsens not to score	26.1%	33.7%	−7.7 pp	3.84
Viborg FF to score	79.7%	84.2%	−4.6 pp	1.26
Viborg FF not to score	20.3%	15.8%	+4.6 pp	4.91
Both teams to score	60.6%	57.7%	+3.0 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.4%	42.3%	−3.0 pp	2.54
AC Horsens 2+ goals	35.8%	31.3%	+4.5 pp	2.80
AC Horsens at most 1 goal	64.2%	68.7%	−4.5 pp	1.56
Viborg FF 2+ goals	44.5%	57.7%	−13.1 pp	2.25
Viborg FF at most 1 goal	55.5%	42.3%	+13.1 pp	1.80
Over 1.5 goals	79.5%	79.2%	+0.3 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.5%	20.8%	−0.3 pp	4.88
Over 2.5 goals	52.3%	57.1%	−4.9 pp	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	47.7%	42.9%	+4.9 pp	2.10

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AC Horsens sample: 5 matches
Viborg FF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

AC Horsens has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.