Brøndby IF – AGF prediction, 1 November 2026 · Superliga (Denmark)

Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 18:00 Sun 1 November, 18:00

1d 3h to kick-off

Match preview · Superliga (Denmark)

Brøndby IF Home 5th in Superliga (Denmark)

1.55

AGF Away 8th in Superliga (Denmark)

1.23 Projected xG

Brøndby IF: 43%; Mkt 44% Market 44%; Fair 2.32 Fair odds 2.32
Draw: 29%; Mkt 26% Market 26%; Fair 3.40 Fair odds 3.40
AGF: 27%; Mkt 31% Market 31%; Fair 3.65 Fair odds 3.65

1 qualified edge: AGF at most 1 goal

It passes the rule the Betting section applies, at this moment. How this is decided →

Data coverage · full

Brøndby IF 20/20
AGF 20/20

Model updated 31 October, 12:30
Top odds updated 30 October, 21:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +10.1%

Model 45.9%

Market 39.0%

Fair odds 2.18 Bookmaker odds 2.40

Model skill: -0.89%
AGF at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +7.8%

Model 64.7%

Market 55.7%

Fair odds 1.55 Bookmaker odds 1.67

Model skill: +2.61%
Draw Match result

Edge +5.9%

Model 29.4%

Market 25.5%

Fair odds 3.40 Bookmaker odds 3.60

Model skill: -1.04%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge +0.7%

Model 38.3%

Market 35.5%

Fair odds 2.61 Bookmaker odds 2.63

Model skill: -0.43%
Brøndby IF at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +0.3%

Model 52.5%

Market 48.5%

Fair odds 1.90 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: +3.62%

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Match result

Draw Match result

Edge +5.9%

Model 29.4%

Market 25.5%

Fair odds 3.40 Bookmaker odds 3.60

Model skill: -1.04%
Brøndby IF to win Match result

Edge -9.3%

Model 43.2%

Market 43.8%

Fair odds 2.32 Bookmaker odds 2.10

Model skill: +7.19%
AGF to win Match result

Edge -17.8%

Model 27.4%

Market 30.7%

Fair odds 3.65 Bookmaker odds 3.00

Model skill: +7.20%

Model against the market

Draw

Model: 29.4%
Market, margin removed: 25.5%

Probability gap: +3.9 pp
Edge: +5.9%
Fair odds: 3.40
Market odds: 3.60 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.57
Bookmaker margin: 8.7%

Brøndby IF to win

Model: 43.2%
Market, margin removed: 43.8%

Probability gap: −0.6 pp
Edge: −9.3%
Fair odds: 2.32
Market odds: 2.10 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 2.43
Bookmaker margin: 8.7%

AGF to win

Model: 27.4%
Market, margin removed: 30.7%

Probability gap: −3.3 pp
Edge: −17.8%
Fair odds: 3.65
Market odds: 3.00 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.83
Bookmaker margin: 8.7%

Goals

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +10.1%

Model 45.9%

Market 39.0%

Fair odds 2.18 Bookmaker odds 2.40

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge +6.0%

Model 19.3%

Market 17.2%

Fair odds 5.19 Bookmaker odds 5.50

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -7.7%

Model 80.7%

Market 82.8%

Fair odds 1.24 Bookmaker odds 1.14

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -17.1%

Model 54.1%

Market 61.0%

Fair odds 1.85 Bookmaker odds 1.53

Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge +0.7%

Model 38.3%

Market 35.5%

Fair odds 2.61 Bookmaker odds 2.63

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -11.0%

Model 61.7%

Market 64.5%

Fair odds 1.62 Bookmaker odds 1.44

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

AGF at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +7.8%

Model 64.7%

Market 55.7%

Fair odds 1.55 Bookmaker odds 1.67

Model skill: +2.61%
Brøndby IF at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +0.3%

Model 52.5%

Market 48.5%

Fair odds 1.90 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: +3.62%
AGF not to score Goals by team

Edge -1.0%

Model 26.4%

Market 25.0%

Fair odds 3.79 Bookmaker odds 3.75

Model skill: +2.56%
Brøndby IF to score Goals by team

Edge -4.9%

Model 81.5%

Market 81.1%

Fair odds 1.23 Bookmaker odds 1.17

Model skill: +3.77%
Brøndby IF not to score Goals by team

Edge -7.4%

Model 18.5%

Market 18.9%

Fair odds 5.40 Bookmaker odds 5.00

Model skill: +3.77%
AGF to score Goals by team

Edge -8.0%

Model 73.6%

Market 75.0%

Fair odds 1.36 Bookmaker odds 1.25

Model skill: +2.56%
Brøndby IF 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -14.6%

Model 47.5%

Market 51.5%

Fair odds 2.11 Bookmaker odds 1.80

Model skill: +3.62%
AGF 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -25.8%

Model 35.3%

Market 44.3%

Fair odds 2.83 Bookmaker odds 2.10

Model skill: +2.61%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

Got different odds? Check your price →

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Brøndby IF xG 1.80 xGA 1.18

L 1.19 created, 0.85 conceded against Randers FC
L 0.80 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Midtjylland
L 0.71 created, 2.27 conceded against FC København
W 2.34 created, 0.75 conceded against Lyngby
L 2.56 created, 0.75 conceded against Odense Boldklub
W 3.19 created, 1.31 conceded against Randers FC

AGF xG 1.38 xGA 1.57

D 1.92 created, 1.23 conceded against Silkeborg IF
L 1.26 created, 2.79 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
D 1.01 created, 1.19 conceded against AC Horsens
W 1.15 created, 1.42 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
D 0.82 created, 1.98 conceded against FC København
W 2.10 created, 0.78 conceded against Viborg FF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.78
Over 2.5 goals: 54%
Both teams to score: 62%
Brøndby IF 2+ goals: 47%
Brøndby IF clean sheet: 26%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 14.7%
2:1: 10.8%
1:2: 8.2%

Why the model favours Brøndby IF

Attack, defence and recent form all point to Brøndby IF.

Attack: Favours Brøndby IF; 3rd vs 5th; Brøndby IF attack v AGF defence
Defence: Favours Brøndby IF; 2nd vs 5th; Brøndby IF defence v AGF attack
Recent xG form: Favours Brøndby IF; +0.62 vs -0.19; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Brøndby IF and AGF compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Brøndby IF	AGF
xG / match	(better) 1.59 · 4th	1.54 · 6th
xGA / match	(better) 1.39 · 5th	1.52 · 6th
xGD / match	(better) +0.20 · 5th	+0.02 · 7th
xPts / match	(better) 1.51 · 5th	1.45 · 6th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.62	-0.19

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Brøndby IF and AGF compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Brøndby IF	AGF
xG / match	(better) 1.59 · 4th	1.54 · 6th
npxG / match	(better) 1.50	1.37
Shots / match	15.0 · 4th	(better) 15.6 · 3rd
npxG / shot	(better) 0.10 · 5th	0.09 · 9th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Brøndby IF and AGF compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Brøndby IF	AGF
xGA / match	(better) 1.39 · 5th	1.52 · 6th
Shots faced / match	(better) 12.5 · 2nd	14.4 · 8th
npxGA / shot	0.10 · 6th	(better) 0.09 · 3rd

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Brøndby IF and AGF compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Brøndby IF	AGF
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.80	1.38
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.18	1.57
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.62	-0.19

Head to head

Brøndby IF 0 Draws 3 AGF 2

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Brøndby IF to win

43.2% 2.32 —

Draw

29.4% 3.40 —

AGF to win

27.4% 3.65 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

80.7% 1.24 —

Under 1.5 goals

19.3% 5.19 —

Over 2.5 goals

54.1% 1.85 —

Under 2.5 goals

45.9% 2.18 —

Both teams to score

61.7% 1.62 —

Both teams not to score

38.3% 2.61 —

Team goals — Brøndby IF

Brøndby IF to score

81.5% 1.23 —

Brøndby IF not to score

18.5% 5.40 —

Brøndby IF 2+ goals

47.5% 2.11 —

Brøndby IF at most 1 goal

52.5% 1.90 —

Team goals — AGF

AGF to score

73.6% 1.36 —

AGF not to score

26.4% 3.79 —

AGF 2+ goals

35.3% 2.83 —

AGF at most 1 goal

64.7% 1.55 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Brøndby IF xG 1.80 xGA 1.18

L 1.19 created, 0.85 conceded against Randers FC
L 0.80 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Midtjylland
L 0.71 created, 2.27 conceded against FC København
W 2.34 created, 0.75 conceded against Lyngby
L 2.56 created, 0.75 conceded against Odense Boldklub
W 3.19 created, 1.31 conceded against Randers FC

AGF xG 1.38 xGA 1.57

D 1.92 created, 1.23 conceded against Silkeborg IF
L 1.26 created, 2.79 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
D 1.01 created, 1.19 conceded against AC Horsens
W 1.15 created, 1.42 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
D 0.82 created, 1.98 conceded against FC København
W 2.10 created, 0.78 conceded against Viborg FF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Brøndby IF 0 Draws 3 AGF 2

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model favours Brøndby IF

Team comparison

Brøndby IF attack → AGF defence

AGF attack → Brøndby IF defence

Head to head

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Brøndby IF

Team goals — AGF

What the model doesn't know