Expected goals
FC Fredericia expected goals (xG) 2025/2026
Superliga (Denmark) · after 32 matches · updated 4 Oct
FC Fredericia's attacking and defensive expected goals in Superliga (Denmark) 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.
FC Fredericia xG and xGA per match
Every match ↓
Attack
Expected goals (xG)
The quality of chances created, summed. Per match = total ÷ matches with xG.
1.34
xG per match
#10/12
of 12
| Rank | Club | xG per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | FC København | 2.10 |
| #2 | AGF | 1.96 |
| #3 | Odense Boldklub | 1.68 |
| #4 | Brøndby IF | 1.60 |
| #5 | FC Midtjylland | 1.59 |
| #6 | FC Nordsjælland | 1.52 |
| #7 | Viborg FF | 1.52 |
| #8 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 1.48 |
| #9 | Randers FC | 1.46 |
| #10 | FC Fredericia | 1.34 |
| #11 | Silkeborg IF | 1.28 |
| #12 | Vejle | 1.06 |
- League avg
- 1.55
- Total
- 42.88 32 matches
Defence
Expected goals against (xGA)
The quality of chances conceded. Ranked lowest first, and drawn with better to the right.
2.06
xGA per match
#12/12
of 12
| Rank | Club | xGA per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | AGF | 1.22 |
| #2 | FC København | 1.26 |
| #3 | Brøndby IF | 1.28 |
| #4 | Randers FC | 1.31 |
| #5 | FC Midtjylland | 1.38 |
| #6 | Odense Boldklub | 1.52 |
| #7 | FC Nordsjælland | 1.59 |
| #8 | Vejle | 1.61 |
| #9 | Viborg FF | 1.64 |
| #10 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 1.69 |
| #11 | Silkeborg IF | 2.05 |
| #12 | FC Fredericia | 2.06 |
- League avg
- 1.55
- Total
- 66.06 32 matches
xG difference
xG difference (xGD)
xG minus xGA. Positive means creating more than conceding; the league average is 0.00.
-0.72
xGD per match
#11/12
of 12
| Rank | Club | xGD per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | FC København | +0.84 |
| #2 | AGF | +0.74 |
| #3 | Brøndby IF | +0.32 |
| #4 | FC Midtjylland | +0.21 |
| #5 | Odense Boldklub | +0.16 |
| #6 | Randers FC | +0.15 |
| #7 | FC Nordsjælland | -0.07 |
| #8 | Viborg FF | -0.12 |
| #9 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | -0.22 |
| #10 | Vejle | -0.55 |
| #11 | FC Fredericia | -0.72 |
| #12 | Silkeborg IF | -0.77 |
- League avg
- 0.00
- Total
- -23.18 32 matches
Expected points
Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
Expected points (xPts)
Model output: the points a side would average with these chances. See how it works.
0.96
xPts per match
#11/12
of 12
| Rank | Club | xPts per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | FC København | 1.88 |
| #2 | AGF | 1.81 |
| #3 | FC Midtjylland | 1.53 |
| #4 | Odense Boldklub | 1.51 |
| #5 | Brøndby IF | 1.51 |
| #6 | Randers FC | 1.49 |
| #7 | FC Nordsjælland | 1.39 |
| #8 | Viborg FF | 1.31 |
| #9 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 1.29 |
| #10 | Vejle | 1.01 |
| #11 | FC Fredericia | 0.96 |
| #12 | Silkeborg IF | 0.92 |
- League avg
- 1.39
- Total
- 30.70 vs 34 actual pts
What the xG says
FC Fredericia's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Superliga (Denmark). They rank #11 for xG difference at -0.72 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 45 goals are 2.12 above 42.88 xG, while 34 points are 3.30 above 30.70 xPts.
Actual vs expected
Measure
Actual
Expected
Difference
Reading
Goals vs xG
Includes 1.37 xG from penalties
45
42.88
+2.12
scored 2.12 more than xG
within normal variance
34
30.70
+3.30
3.30 points above xPts
within normal variance
Select a row to chart it across the season.
Goals minus xG, match by match
FC Fredericia are 2.12 goals above their xG after 32 matches. The gap was widest at +3.57, against Randers FC on Thu 23/04.
- Goals
- 45
- xG
- 42.88
- Gap
- +2.12
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Goals | xG | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 20/07 | FC Nordsjælland | 2 | 1.25 | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Sun 27/07 | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 1.26 | +0.74 | +1.49 |
| Fri 01/08 | FC København | 0 | 0.46 | -0.46 | +1.03 |
| Sun 10/08 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 2.29 | +0.71 | +1.74 |
| Fri 15/08 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 3 | 1.94 | +1.06 | +2.80 |
| Sun 24/08 | Randers FC | 1 | 1.20 | -0.20 | +2.60 |
| Sun 31/08 | AGF | 1 | 0.51 | +0.49 | +3.09 |
| Mon 15/09 | Vejle | 1 | 1.74 | -0.74 | +2.35 |
| Fri 19/09 | Odense Boldklub | 2 | 1.96 | +0.04 | +2.39 |
| Sun 28/09 | Viborg FF | 1 | 1.05 | -0.05 | +2.34 |
| Sun 05/10 | Brøndby IF | 0 | 0.94 | -0.94 | +1.40 |
| Mon 20/10 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 0 | 1.10 | -1.10 | +0.30 |
| Sun 26/10 | FC Midtjylland | 0 | 0.58 | -0.58 | -0.28 |
| Sat 01/11 | FC København | 2 | 1.73 | +0.27 | -0.01 |
| Sun 09/11 | Viborg FF | 0 | 0.24 | -0.24 | -0.25 |
| Sun 23/11 | FC Nordsjælland | 0 | 0.25 | -0.25 | -0.50 |
| Mon 01/12 | Brøndby IF | 3 | 1.41 | +1.59 | +1.09 |
| Fri 05/12 | Odense Boldklub | 1 | 1.09 | -0.09 | +1.00 |
| Mon 09/02 | Vejle | 3 | 2.61 | +0.39 | +1.39 |
| Sun 15/02 | AGF | 1 | 0.97 | +0.03 | +1.42 |
| Sun 22/02 | Randers FC | 2 | 1.84 | +0.16 | +1.58 |
| Sun 01/03 | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 1.31 | +0.69 | +2.27 |
| Fri 13/03 | Randers FC | 0 | 0.62 | -0.62 | +1.65 |
| Sun 22/03 | FC København | 2 | 1.26 | +0.74 | +2.39 |
| Mon 06/04 | Odense Boldklub | 0 | 0.84 | -0.84 | +1.55 |
| Mon 13/04 | Vejle | 2 | 1.81 | +0.19 | +1.74 |
| Sun 19/04 | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 1.40 | +0.60 | +2.34 |
| Thu 23/04 | Randers FC | 2 | 0.77 | +1.23 | +3.57 |
| Sun 26/04 | Odense Boldklub | 0 | 1.81 | -1.81 | +1.76 |
| Sun 03/05 | FC København | 3 | 3.01 | -0.01 | +1.75 |
| Sun 10/05 | Vejle | 0 | 0.85 | -0.85 | +0.90 |
| Sun 17/05 | Silkeborg IF | 4 | 2.78 | +1.22 | +2.12 |
FC Fredericia xG trend
Current form -0.08 npxGD per match
The last 6 matches with xG.
Out-created the opponent in 8 of 32 matches. The worst was against Brøndby IF on Sun 05/10 (-3.10).
- npxG · last 6
- 1.59
- npxGA · last 6
- 1.67
- npxG
- npxGA
- npxGD
- Avg so far
| Date | Opponent | npxG | npxGA | npxGD | Avg so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 20/07 | FC Nordsjælland | 1.25 | 1.16 | +0.09 | +0.09 |
| Sun 27/07 | Silkeborg IF | 1.26 | 1.94 | -0.68 | -0.29 |
| Fri 01/08 | FC København | 0.46 | 1.63 | -1.17 | -0.59 |
| Sun 10/08 | FC Midtjylland | 2.29 | 2.32 | -0.03 | -0.45 |
| Fri 15/08 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 1.94 | 1.50 | +0.44 | -0.27 |
| Sun 24/08 | Randers FC | 1.20 | 1.36 | -0.16 | -0.25 |
| Sun 31/08 | AGF | 0.51 | 3.56 | -3.05 | -0.65 |
| Mon 15/09 | Vejle | 1.74 | 1.84 | -0.10 | -0.58 |
| Fri 19/09 | Odense Boldklub | 1.96 | 2.69 | -0.73 | -0.60 |
| Sun 28/09 | Viborg FF | 1.05 | 1.61 | -0.56 | -0.60 |
| Sun 05/10 | Brøndby IF | 0.94 | 4.04 | -3.10 | -0.82 |
| Mon 20/10 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 1.10 | 3.13 | -2.03 | -0.92 |
| Sun 26/10 | FC Midtjylland | 0.58 | 1.64 | -1.06 | -0.93 |
| Sat 01/11 | FC København | 1.73 | 2.06 | -0.33 | -0.89 |
| Sun 09/11 | Viborg FF | 0.31 | 0.67 | -0.36 | -0.86 |
| Sun 23/11 | FC Nordsjælland | 0.25 | 2.61 | -2.36 | -0.95 |
| Mon 01/12 | Brøndby IF | 1.41 | 2.18 | -0.77 | -0.94 |
| Fri 05/12 | Odense Boldklub | 1.09 | 1.87 | -0.78 | -0.93 |
| Mon 09/02 | Vejle | 2.63 | 3.04 | -0.41 | -0.90 |
| Sun 15/02 | AGF | 0.98 | 1.13 | -0.15 | -0.87 |
| Sun 22/02 | Randers FC | 1.86 | 1.78 | +0.08 | -0.82 |
| Sun 01/03 | Silkeborg IF | 1.34 | 0.90 | +0.44 | -0.76 |
| Fri 13/03 | Randers FC | 0.62 | 1.24 | -0.62 | -0.76 |
| Sun 22/03 | FC København | 1.26 | 4.14 | -2.88 | -0.85 |
| Mon 06/04 | Odense Boldklub | 0.83 | 1.53 | -0.70 | -0.84 |
| Mon 13/04 | Vejle | 1.41 | 1.21 | +0.20 | -0.80 |
| Sun 19/04 | Silkeborg IF | 1.15 | 2.12 | -0.97 | -0.81 |
| Thu 23/04 | Randers FC | 0.95 | 1.67 | -0.72 | -0.80 |
| Sun 26/04 | Odense Boldklub | 1.92 | 1.45 | +0.47 | -0.76 |
| Sun 03/05 | FC København | 2.21 | 1.52 | +0.69 | -0.71 |
| Sun 10/05 | Vejle | 0.73 | 2.32 | -1.59 | -0.74 |
| Sun 17/05 | Silkeborg IF | 2.55 | 0.92 | +1.63 | -0.66 |
Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.30 npxG and 1.96 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.
Strength of schedule
- Season so far
- tied number 8 hardest of 12 in Superliga (Denmark)
- −0.01 xG vs league average
- Over 32 league matches
- Last 5
- number 8 hardest of 12 in Superliga (Denmark)
- −0.09 xG vs league average
- Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures
Season so far
−0.01 xG vs league average · over 32 matches · tied number 8 hardest of 12
- Silkeborg IF Home −0.62
- Vejle Away −0.29
- FC København Home +0.52
- Odense Boldklub Home −0.07
- Randers FC Away +0.01
- Silkeborg IF Away −0.62
- Vejle Home −0.29
- Odense Boldklub Away −0.07
- FC København Away +0.52
- Randers FC Home +0.01
- Silkeborg IF Home −0.62
- Randers FC Away +0.01
- AGF Home +0.37
- Vejle Away −0.29
- Odense Boldklub Home −0.07
- Brøndby IF Away +0.17
- FC Nordsjælland Away +0.17
- Viborg FF Home +0.11
- FC København Away +0.52
- FC Midtjylland Home +0.22
- Sønderjyske Fodbold Away −0.24
- Brøndby IF Home +0.17
- Viborg FF Away +0.11
- Odense Boldklub Away −0.07
- Vejle Home −0.29
- AGF Away +0.37
- Randers FC Home +0.01
- Sønderjyske Fodbold Home −0.24
- FC Midtjylland Away +0.22
- FC København Home +0.52
- Silkeborg IF Away −0.62
- FC Nordsjælland Home +0.17
Last 5
−0.09 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 8 hardest of 12
- Silkeborg IF Home −0.62
- Vejle Away −0.29
- FC København Home +0.52
- Odense Boldklub Home −0.07
- Randers FC Away +0.01
FC Fredericia shots and chance quality
Average volume, average quality. FC Fredericia take 12.2 shots a match (league 13.4) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #8 in Superliga (Denmark) for volume and #10 for quality. 69% of their shots come from inside the box (league 67%).
Attack
Shot volume
Shots per match
Every attempt, penalties included, ÷ matches with shot counts and xG.
12.2
shots per match
#8/12
of 12
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | FC København | 17.7 |
| #2 | AGF | 15.6 |
| #3 | FC Midtjylland | 14.4 |
| #4 | Brøndby IF | 14.3 |
| #5 | FC Nordsjælland | 13.5 |
| #6 | Viborg FF | 13.4 |
| #7 | Randers FC | 12.5 |
| #8 | FC Fredericia | 12.2 |
| #9 | Odense Boldklub | 12.2 |
| #10 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 12.1 |
| #11 | Silkeborg IF | 11.5 |
| #12 | Vejle | 11.1 |
- League avg
- 13.4
- Total
- 390 shots from 32 matches
Chance quality
Non-penalty xG per shot
Non-penalty xG ÷ shots, over the same matches. Penalty attempts included in the shot count.
0.11
npxG per shot
#10/12
of 12
| Rank | Club | npxG per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Odense Boldklub | 0.13 |
| #2 | AGF | 0.12 |
| #3 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 0.12 |
| #4 | FC København | 0.11 |
| #5 | Randers FC | 0.11 |
| #6 | FC Nordsjælland | 0.11 |
| #7 | Viborg FF | 0.11 |
| #8 | Brøndby IF | 0.11 |
| #9 | FC Midtjylland | 0.11 |
| #10 | FC Fredericia | 0.11 |
| #11 | Silkeborg IF | 0.10 |
| #12 | Vejle | 0.09 |
- League avg
- 0.11
- Total
- 41.51 npxG from 390 shots
Defence
Shots allowed
Shots allowed per match
Every opponent attempt, penalties included, ÷ matches with shot counts and xG. Ranked lowest first, and drawn with better to the right.
18.1
shots per match
#12/12
of 12
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | FC København | 9.8 |
| #2 | AGF | 11.3 |
| #3 | FC Midtjylland | 12.1 |
| #4 | Randers FC | 12.4 |
| #5 | Brøndby IF | 12.5 |
| #6 | FC Nordsjælland | 12.6 |
| #7 | Odense Boldklub | 13.0 |
| #8 | Vejle | 13.4 |
| #9 | Viborg FF | 13.8 |
| #10 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 15.3 |
| #11 | Silkeborg IF | 16.2 |
| #12 | FC Fredericia | 18.1 |
- League avg
- 13.4
- Total
- 579 shots allowed from 32 matches
Chance quality allowed
Non-penalty xGA per shot
Opponents' non-penalty xG ÷ their shots, over the same matches. Penalty attempts included in the shot count. Ranked lowest first.
0.11
npxGA per shot
#5/12
of 12
| Rank | Club | npxGA per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Brøndby IF | 0.10 |
| #2 | Randers FC | 0.10 |
| #3 | AGF | 0.11 |
| #4 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 0.11 |
| #5 | FC Fredericia | 0.11 |
| #6 | Odense Boldklub | 0.11 |
| #7 | Vejle | 0.11 |
| #8 | Viborg FF | 0.11 |
| #9 | FC Midtjylland | 0.11 |
| #10 | Silkeborg IF | 0.12 |
| #11 | FC København | 0.12 |
| #12 | FC Nordsjælland | 0.12 |
- League avg
- 0.11
- Total
- 62.78 npxGA from 579 shots
Shot profile
Shot location
69% inside the box
League avg 67%
From 270 of 390 shots over 32 matches
Shots allowed, location
65% allowed inside the box
League avg 67%
From 377 of 579 shots allowed over 32 matches
FC Fredericia home and away xG
| Measure | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 16 |
| xG / match | 1.36 | 1.32 |
| xGA / match | 1.69 | 2.44 |
| xGD / match | -0.33 | -1.12 |
| xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → | 1.16 | 0.76 |
Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.
Every FC Fredericia match by xG
At home this season
- Matches
- 16
- xG / match
- 1.36
- xGA / match
- 1.69
- xGD / match
- -0.33
- Points
- 16 of 48
- Sun 17/05 Silkeborg IF H Best underlying xG 2.78 xGA 1.46 P xGD +1.32 xPts 2.24
- Sun 03/05 FC København H xG 3.01 P xGA 2.39 P xGD +0.62 xPts 1.77
- Sun 26/04 Odense Boldklub H xG 1.81 xGA 1.31 xGD +0.50 xPts 1.74
- Mon 13/04 Vejle H xG 1.81 xGA 1.19 xGD +0.62 xPts 1.84
- Fri 13/03 Randers FC H xG 0.62 xGA 1.24 xGD -0.62 xPts 0.78
- Sun 01/03 Silkeborg IF H xG 1.31 xGA 0.89 xGD +0.42 xPts 1.72
- Sun 15/02 AGF H xG 0.97 xGA 1.91 P xGD -0.94 xPts 0.68
- Fri 05/12 Odense Boldklub H xG 1.09 xGA 1.87 xGD -0.78 xPts 0.79
- Sun 09/11 Viborg FF H xG 0.24 xGA 1.56 P xGD -1.32 xPts 0.31
- Sun 26/10 FC Midtjylland H xG 0.58 xGA 1.64 xGD -1.06 xPts 0.52
- Sun 05/10 Brøndby IF H Weakest underlying xG 0.94 xGA 4.04 xGD -3.10 xPts 0.11
- Mon 15/09 Vejle H xG 1.74 xGA 1.84 xGD -0.10 xPts 1.31
- Sun 24/08 Randers FC H xG 1.20 xGA 1.36 xGD -0.16 xPts 1.21
- Fri 15/08 Sønderjyske Fodbold H xG 1.94 xGA 1.50 xGD +0.44 xPts 1.70
- Fri 01/08 FC København H xG 0.46 xGA 1.63 xGD -1.17 xPts 0.42
- Sun 20/07 FC Nordsjælland H xG 1.25 xGA 1.16 xGD +0.09 xPts 1.43
Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.04. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.
FC Fredericia in Superliga (Denmark)
Attack
- xG / match #10 of 12
- Shots / match #8 of 12
- Chance quality #10 of 12
- Home xG #11 of 12
- Away xG #8 of 12
Defence
- xGA / match #12 of 12
- Shots allowed #12 of 12
- Chance quality allowed #5 of 12
About the data
- xG data
- Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
- Derived metrics
- xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
- Model metrics
- xPts is produced by our probability model.