FC København 2:0 FC Nordsjælland: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Thursday, 03/09/2026 at 20:00

Full time

Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

FC København Home 1.62 xG · 21 shots

FC Nordsjælland Away 0.63 xG · 10 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC København were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FC Nordsjælland's attack: 0.63 xG against 1.54 projected (−0.91).

Goals

8' Robert FC København · 0.36 xG chance 1–0
31' Alex Král FC København · 0.03 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC København: 38% What happened
Draw: 28%
FC Nordsjælland: 34%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC København 1.64 1.62 -0.02

FC Nordsjælland 1.54 0.63 -0.91

FC Nordsjælland produced 0.91 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC København FC Nordsjælland

Shots: 21; 10
On target: 7; 1
Inside the box: 9; 8
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.34; 0.41
Set-piece xG: 0.11; 0.22
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.45 for FC København.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 2.08 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC København
FC Nordsjælland
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC København

1.40 xG created 1.22 xGA

D 1.59 created, 1.02 conceded against Brøndby IF
W 1.56 created, 2.34 conceded against Lyngby
W 1.20 created, 1.52 conceded against Silkeborg IF
W 1.30 created, 0.46 conceded against Randers FC
L 0.34 created, 1.19 conceded against Viborg FF
W 2.43 created, 0.78 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold

FC Nordsjælland

2.88 xG created 1.25 xGA

W 2.90 created, 1.99 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
D 2.66 created, 1.50 conceded against AC Horsens
W 3.70 created, 0.74 conceded against Randers FC
W 2.70 created, 0.22 conceded against Silkeborg IF
W 1.97 created, 1.28 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
W 3.32 created, 1.76 conceded against Brøndby IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC København: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC København sample: 20 matches
FC Nordsjælland sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.