Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 14:00
Full timeFC Midtjylland 1:0 Randers FC
FC Midtjylland were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC Midtjylland's attack: 1.28 xG against 1.57 projected (−0.29).
Goals
- 28' Darío Osorio FC Midtjylland · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- FC Midtjylland
- 52% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Randers FC
- 19%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Midtjylland produced 0.29 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 8
- On target
- 6
- 2
- Inside the box
- 11
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 0.78
- 0.60
- Set-piece xG
- 0.59
- 0.33
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.35 for FC Midtjylland and 0.96 for Randers FC.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 2.30 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Midtjylland
- Randers FC
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.32 xG created 1.34 xGA
- D 1.37 created, 1.53 conceded against Viborg FF
- D 0.73 created, 2.40 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
- L 1.95 created, 2.09 conceded against Brøndby IF
- W 0.82 created, 1.09 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
- W 1.97 created, 0.41 conceded against AC Horsens
- D 1.05 created, 0.49 conceded against Lyngby
0.92 xG created 1.85 xGA
- D 1.99 created, 0.94 conceded against Odense Boldklub
- L 0.22 created, 2.21 conceded against FC København
- D 0.60 created, 1.09 conceded against Silkeborg IF
- L 0.74 created, 3.70 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
- W 1.51 created, 1.85 conceded against Lyngby
- L 0.46 created, 1.30 conceded against FC København
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland not to score | 8.00 | +45.3% | Lost |
| FC Midtjylland at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +29.9% | Won |
| Draw | 4.33 | +27.7% | Lost |
| Randers FC to win | 6.50 | +22.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | +21.2% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +11.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 51.7% | 64.2% | −12.5 pp | 1.94 |
| Draw | 29.5% | 21.5% | +8.0 pp | 3.39 |
| Randers FC | 18.9% | 14.3% | +4.5 pp | 5.30 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland to score | 81.8% | 88.1% | −6.2 pp | 1.22 |
| FC Midtjylland not to score | 18.2% | 11.9% | +6.2 pp | 5.50 |
| Randers FC to score | 62.8% | 58.9% | +4.0 pp | 1.59 |
| Randers FC not to score | 37.2% | 41.1% | −4.0 pp | 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 53.3% | −0.2 pp | 1.88 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.8% | 46.7% | +0.2 pp | 2.14 |
| FC Midtjylland 2+ goals | 48.0% | 62.5% | −14.5 pp | 2.08 |
| FC Midtjylland at most 1 goal | 52.0% | 37.5% | +14.5 pp | 1.92 |
| Randers FC 2+ goals | 22.8% | 23.4% | −0.6 pp | 4.38 |
| Randers FC at most 1 goal | 77.2% | 76.6% | +0.6 pp | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | 79.2% | −4.0 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 20.8% | +4.0 pp | 4.03 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 58.2% | −12.1 pp | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 41.8% | +12.1 pp | 1.86 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Midtjylland sample
- 20 matches
- Randers FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.