FC Nordsjælland 2:3 FC Midtjylland: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

FC Nordsjælland Home 3.67 xG · 24 shots

FC Midtjylland Away 2.16 xG · 14 shots

23 The result went against the chances

FC Nordsjælland were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. FC Midtjylland won 3–2. The biggest difference was FC Nordsjælland's attack: 3.67 xG against 1.71 projected (+1.96). FC Midtjylland produced 2.16 xG against 1.17 projected (+0.99).

Goals

6' Justin Janssen FC Nordsjælland · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
34' Ibrahim Adel FC Nordsjælland · 0.59 xG chance 2–0
66' Tobias Salquist (o.g.) FC Midtjylland 2–1
74' Kjell Wätjen FC Midtjylland · 0.10 xG chance 2–2
90' Sofus Johannesen FC Midtjylland · 0.48 xG chance 2–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Nordsjælland: 49%
Draw: 28%
FC Midtjylland: 23% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Nordsjælland 1.71 3.67 +1.96

FC Midtjylland 1.17 2.16 +0.99

FC Nordsjælland produced 1.96 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Nordsjælland FC Midtjylland

Shots: 24; 14
On target: 12; 4
Inside the box: 19; 10
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.16
Open play xG: 2.28; 2.05
Set-piece xG: 1.38; 0.14
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.68 for FC Nordsjælland and 2.16 for FC Midtjylland.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

38 shots · 5.85 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

FC Nordsjælland
FC Midtjylland
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Nordsjælland

1.92 xG created 1.47 xGA

D 2.10 created, 1.88 conceded against FC Midtjylland
W 2.79 created, 1.26 conceded against AGF
L 1.32 created, 2.60 conceded against Viborg FF
D 2.01 created, 0.39 conceded against Odense Boldklub
D 2.47 created, 2.10 conceded against Lyngby
D 0.85 created, 0.62 conceded against Silkeborg IF

FC Midtjylland

1.41 xG created 1.43 xGA

D 1.88 created, 2.10 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
W 1.16 created, 0.80 conceded against Brøndby IF
D 0.60 created, 1.73 conceded against Odense Boldklub
W 1.62 created, 1.73 conceded against FC København
W 0.74 created, 1.47 conceded against Viborg FF
W 2.43 created, 0.72 conceded against Lyngby

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Nordsjælland: 2 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 qualified edges flagged0 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Nordsjælland against FC Midtjylland before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Midtjylland not to score	4.33	+22.5%	Lost
FC Midtjylland at most 1 goal	1.73	+15.6%	Lost
FC Nordsjælland to win	2.20	+7.3%	Lost
Draw	3.75	+4.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.40	+4.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Nordsjælland	48.8%	41.9%	+6.9 pp	2.05
Draw	27.9%	24.6%	+3.4 pp	3.58
FC Midtjylland	23.3%	33.5%	−10.2 pp	4.29

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Nordsjælland to score	84.3%	81.1%	+3.3 pp	1.19
FC Nordsjælland not to score	15.7%	18.9%	−3.3 pp	6.39
FC Midtjylland to score	71.7%	78.3%	−6.6 pp	1.39
FC Midtjylland not to score	28.3%	21.7%	+6.6 pp	3.54
Both teams to score	62.1%	64.5%	−2.4 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	37.9%	35.5%	+2.4 pp	2.64
FC Nordsjælland 2+ goals	52.7%	50.0%	+2.7 pp	1.90
FC Nordsjælland at most 1 goal	47.3%	50.0%	−2.7 pp	2.11
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals	33.0%	46.3%	−13.3 pp	3.03
FC Midtjylland at most 1 goal	67.0%	53.7%	+13.3 pp	1.49
Over 1.5 goals	82.2%	82.8%	−0.6 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	17.8%	17.2%	+0.6 pp	5.61
Over 2.5 goals	56.5%	61.0%	−4.5 pp	1.77
Under 2.5 goals	43.5%	39.0%	+4.5 pp	2.30

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Nordsjælland sample: 20 matches
FC Midtjylland sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 59 minutes before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.