Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeOdense Boldklub 1:1 FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FC Midtjylland's attack: 0.60 xG against 1.48 projected (−0.88). Odense Boldklub produced 1.73 xG against 1.33 projected (+0.40).
Goals
- 10' Friday Etim FC Midtjylland · 0.39 xG chance 0–1
- 75' Noah Ganaus Odense Boldklub · 0.42 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Odense Boldklub
- 32%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- FC Midtjylland
- 39%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Midtjylland produced 0.88 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 6
- On target
- 4
- 3
- Inside the box
- 11
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 1.62
- 0.43
- Set-piece xG
- 0.13
- 0.20
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.75 for Odense Boldklub and 0.60 for FC Midtjylland.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 2.38 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Odense Boldklub
- FC Midtjylland
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.40 xG created 1.98 xGA
1.60 xG created 1.12 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland not to score | 6.50 | +31.2% | Lost |
| Odense Boldklub to win | 4.10 | +30.2% | Lost |
| FC Midtjylland at most 1 goal | 2.20 | +21.5% | Won |
| Draw | 4.00 | +18.2% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | +8.2% | Won |
| Odense Boldklub 2+ goals | 2.63 | +3.6% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.50 | +3.4% | Lost |
| Odense Boldklub to score | 1.33 | +1.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odense Boldklub | 31.8% | 22.9% | +8.9 pp | 3.15 |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.5% | +6.1 pp | 3.38 |
| FC Midtjylland | 38.7% | 53.6% | −14.9 pp | 2.58 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odense Boldklub to score | 76.4% | 70.9% | +5.5 pp | 1.31 |
| Odense Boldklub not to score | 23.6% | 29.1% | −5.5 pp | 4.24 |
| FC Midtjylland to score | 79.8% | 85.4% | −5.6 pp | 1.25 |
| FC Midtjylland not to score | 20.2% | 14.6% | +5.6 pp | 4.96 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 60.8% | +1.9 pp | 1.60 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.3% | 39.2% | −1.9 pp | 2.68 |
| Odense Boldklub 2+ goals | 39.5% | 35.5% | +4.0 pp | 2.53 |
| Odense Boldklub at most 1 goal | 60.5% | 64.5% | −4.0 pp | 1.65 |
| FC Midtjylland 2+ goals | 44.8% | 57.7% | −12.9 pp | 2.23 |
| FC Midtjylland at most 1 goal | 55.2% | 42.3% | +12.9 pp | 1.81 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | 82.8% | −1.6 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.8% | 17.2% | +1.6 pp | 5.32 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 61.0% | −6.1 pp | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 39.0% | +6.1 pp | 2.22 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Odense Boldklub sample
- 20 matches
- FC Midtjylland sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.