Randers FC 2:1 AGF: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Randers FC Home 1.10 xG · 8 shots

AGF Away 1.97 xG · 17 shots

21 The result went against the chances

AGF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. Randers FC won 2–1. The biggest difference was AGF's attack: 1.97 xG against 1.46 projected (+0.51).

Goals

21' Elies Mahmoud Randers FC · 0.01 xG chance 1–0
28' Mike Themsen Randers FC · 0.35 xG chance 2–0
63' Janni Serra AGF · 0.66 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Randers FC: 25% What happened
Draw: 31%
AGF: 44%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Randers FC 1.08 1.10 +0.02

AGF 1.46 1.97 +0.51

AGF produced 0.51 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Randers FC AGF

Shots: 8; 17
On target: 5; 6
Inside the box: 5; 12
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.74; 1.49
Set-piece xG: 0.10; 0.16
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.84 for Randers FC and 1.69 for AGF.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 2.49 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Randers FC
AGF
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Randers FC

0.76 xG created 1.91 xGA

L 0.22 created, 2.21 conceded against FC København
D 0.60 created, 1.09 conceded against Silkeborg IF
L 0.74 created, 3.70 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
W 1.51 created, 1.85 conceded against Lyngby
L 0.46 created, 1.30 conceded against FC København
L 1.03 created, 1.28 conceded against FC Midtjylland

AGF

1.72 xG created 1.45 xGA

W 0.59 created, 0.58 conceded against Brøndby IF
W 2.70 created, 2.09 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.91 created, 0.81 conceded against Brøndby IF
D 1.35 created, 3.37 conceded against Lyngby
L 1.92 created, 1.03 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.88 created, 0.81 conceded against Odense Boldklub

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Randers FC: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Randers FC against AGF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+18.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+14.1%	Lost
Draw	3.40	+10.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Randers FC	25.2%	29.7%	−4.5 pp	3.96
Draw	30.7%	28.0%	+2.7 pp	3.25
AGF	44.0%	42.3%	+1.7 pp	2.27

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 1.5 goals	76.2%	78.3%	−2.1 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.8%	21.7%	+2.1 pp	4.21
Over 2.5 goals	47.6%	55.3%	−7.7 pp	2.10
Under 2.5 goals	52.4%	44.7%	+7.7 pp	1.91

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Randers FC sample: 20 matches
AGF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.