Friday, 04/09/2026 at 19:30
Full timeCFR 1907 Cluj 0:0 FC Farul Constanța
CFR 1907 Cluj were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 0–0.
The model against the result
- CFR 1907 Cluj
- 45%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- FC Farul Constanța
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.62 xG created 1.92 xGA
- D 1.29 created, 0.56 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- L 0.83 created, 3.24 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 2.88 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Voluntari
- L 1.17 created, 3.84 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- W 1.54 created, 1.74 conceded against FCSB
- W 2.02 created, 0.96 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
1.58 xG created 1.58 xGA
- W 2.29 created, 0.40 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- D 1.97 created, 4.29 conceded against FCSB
- W 1.21 created, 0.55 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- D 1.05 created, 0.37 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- D 0.72 created, 1.53 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- D 2.25 created, 2.32 conceded against FC Botoșani
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | +16.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +15.9% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | +9.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFR 1907 Cluj | 45.4% | 44.2% | +1.2 pp | 2.20 |
| Draw | 28.5% | 29.2% | −0.7 pp | 3.51 |
| FC Farul Constanța | 26.1% | 26.6% | −0.5 pp | 3.83 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 50.0% | +13.2 pp | 1.58 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.8% | 50.0% | −13.2 pp | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | 70.9% | +11.5 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.6% | 29.1% | −11.5 pp | 5.69 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 46.1% | +10.8 pp | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 53.9% | −10.8 pp | 2.32 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- CFR 1907 Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- FC Farul Constanța sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.