FC Argeș Pitești 0:1 Sepsi OSK: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:30

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Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FC Argeș Pitești Home 0.95 xG

Sepsi OSK Away 0.65 xG

01 The result went against the chances

FC Argeș Pitești were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. Sepsi OSK won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC Argeș Pitești's attack: 0.95 xG against 1.39 projected (−0.44). Sepsi OSK produced 0.65 xG against 1.07 projected (−0.42).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Argeș Pitești: 43%
Draw: 31%
Sepsi OSK: 26% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Argeș Pitești 1.39 0.95 -0.44

Sepsi OSK 1.07 0.65 -0.42

FC Argeș Pitești produced 0.44 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Argeș Pitești Sepsi OSK

Shots: 16; 7
On target: 2; 2
Inside the box: 8; 3
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Argeș Pitești

1.17 xG created 1.31 xGA

L 1.86 created, 1.90 conceded against FCSB
W 0.50 created, 0.68 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
W 2.20 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
W 0.92 created, 3.37 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
D 0.37 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
L 1.16 created, 0.86 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați

Sepsi OSK

1.16 xG created 1.36 xGA

L 0.14 created, 2.25 conceded against FC Rapid București
W 1.79 created, 1.22 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
D 0.86 created, 1.90 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
D 1.31 created, 0.72 conceded against FCSB
D 1.31 created, 1.34 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
D 1.53 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Farul Constanța

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Argeș Pitești against Sepsi OSK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.60	+18.9%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.10	+16.5%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.50	+12.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Argeș Pitești	42.5%	42.1%	+0.4 pp	2.35
Draw	31.4%	31.2%	+0.2 pp	3.18
Sepsi OSK	26.1%	26.6%	−0.6 pp	3.84

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.5%	44.0%	+11.5 pp	1.80
Both teams not to score	44.5%	56.0%	−11.5 pp	2.25
Over 1.5 goals	75.0%	61.5%	+13.4 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	25.0%	38.5%	−13.4 pp	3.99
Over 2.5 goals	45.7%	35.7%	+10.0 pp	2.19
Under 2.5 goals	54.3%	64.3%	−10.0 pp	1.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Argeș Pitești sample: 20 matches
Sepsi OSK sample: 6 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Sepsi OSK has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.