Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 14:00
Full timeFC Botoșani 5:0 Sepsi OSK
FC Botoșani were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was FC Botoșani's attack: 3.79 xG against 1.73 projected (+2.06).
The model against the result
- FC Botoșani
- 47% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- Sepsi OSK
- 25%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
FC Botoșani produced 2.06 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 10
- On target
- 6
- 1
- Inside the box
- 11
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.29
- 0.12
Recent form
1.90 xG created 1.97 xGA
- D 1.79 created, 1.45 conceded against FC Rapid București
- L 2.14 created, 3.14 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- D 1.96 created, 1.59 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- L 1.38 created, 2.37 conceded against FCSB
- W 1.81 created, 1.01 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- D 2.32 created, 2.25 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
1.24 xG created 1.14 xGA
- W 1.79 created, 1.22 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- D 0.86 created, 1.90 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- D 1.31 created, 0.72 conceded against FCSB
- D 1.31 created, 1.34 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- D 1.53 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- W 0.65 created, 0.95 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +15.9% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +13.4% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +8.0% | Won |
| FC Botoșani to win | 2.20 | +3.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botoșani | 47.0% | 41.2% | +5.8 pp | 2.13 |
| Draw | 27.7% | 27.5% | +0.2 pp | 3.62 |
| Sepsi OSK | 25.4% | 31.3% | −5.9 pp | 3.94 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | 52.7% | +12.1 pp | 1.54 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.2% | 47.3% | −12.1 pp | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | 72.0% | +12.0 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.0% | 28.0% | −12.0 pp | 6.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 47.3% | +12.2 pp | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 52.7% | −12.2 pp | 2.47 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Botoșani sample
- 20 matches
- Sepsi OSK sample
- 7 matches
- Computed
- 23 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 23 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Sepsi OSK has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.