FC Corvinul Hunedoara 1:1 FC Dinamo București: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FC Corvinul Hunedoara Home 0.91 xG

FC Dinamo București Away 1.78 xG

11 FC Dinamo București had the better chances, but it finished level

FC Corvinul Hunedoara were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FC Corvinul Hunedoara's attack: 0.91 xG against 1.55 projected (−0.64). FC Dinamo București produced 1.78 xG against 1.50 projected (+0.28).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Corvinul Hunedoara: 37%
Draw: 28% What happened
FC Dinamo București: 35%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Corvinul Hunedoara 1.55 0.91 -0.64

FC Dinamo București 1.50 1.78 +0.28

FC Corvinul Hunedoara produced 0.64 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Corvinul Hunedoara FC Dinamo București

Shots: 12; 24
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 6; 18
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Corvinul Hunedoara

1.80 xG created 1.53 xGA

L 0.40 created, 2.29 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
D 1.90 created, 0.86 conceded against Sepsi OSK
D 1.59 created, 1.96 conceded against FC Botoșani
W 3.84 created, 1.17 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
D 1.29 created, 1.35 conceded against UTA Arad

FC Dinamo București

1.68 xG created 1.31 xGA

D 0.56 created, 1.29 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
L 1.84 created, 1.37 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
W 3.07 created, 1.08 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
D 1.65 created, 0.48 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
W 1.42 created, 1.72 conceded against FC Rapid București
W 1.51 created, 1.94 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Corvinul Hunedoara against FC Dinamo București before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals	3.25	+53.7%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.08	+26.0%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+22.7%	Won
FC Corvinul Hunedoara to score	1.44	+17.5%	Won
FC Corvinul Hunedoara to win	3.10	+14.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+13.0%	Won
FC Dinamo București 2+ goals	2.25	+2.8%	Lost
FC Dinamo București to score	1.25	+0.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Corvinul Hunedoara	36.9%	29.0%	+7.9 pp	2.71
Draw	28.3%	28.1%	+0.2 pp	3.54
FC Dinamo București	34.8%	42.9%	−8.0 pp	2.87

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Corvinul Hunedoara to score	81.4%	64.5%	+16.9 pp	1.23
FC Corvinul Hunedoara not to score	18.6%	35.5%	−16.9 pp	5.37
FC Dinamo București to score	80.4%	75.0%	+5.4 pp	1.24
FC Dinamo București not to score	19.6%	25.0%	−5.4 pp	5.10
Both teams to score	66.9%	50.0%	+16.9 pp	1.49
Both teams not to score	33.1%	50.0%	−16.9 pp	3.03
FC Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals	47.3%	29.1%	+18.2 pp	2.11
FC Corvinul Hunedoara at most 1 goal	52.7%	70.9%	−18.2 pp	1.90
FC Dinamo București 2+ goals	45.7%	41.1%	+4.6 pp	2.19
FC Dinamo București at most 1 goal	54.3%	58.9%	−4.6 pp	1.84
Over 1.5 goals	84.7%	70.9%	+13.8 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.3%	29.1%	−13.8 pp	6.55
Over 2.5 goals	60.7%	45.4%	+15.3 pp	1.65
Under 2.5 goals	39.3%	54.6%	−15.3 pp	2.55

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Corvinul Hunedoara sample: 5 matches
FC Dinamo București sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Corvinul Hunedoara has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.