Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 20:30
6d 20h to kick-offFC Farul Constanța – FC Petrolul Ploieşti
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Farul Constanța
- 58%
- Draw
- 23%
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 18%
| FC Farul Constanța | Draw | FC Petrolul Ploieşti | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.72 | 4.26 | 5.46 |
- Total goals
- 3.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Farul Constanța
58% FC Farul Constanța to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 15th
- FC Farul Constanța attack v FC Petrolul Ploieşti defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 12th
- FC Farul Constanța defence v FC Petrolul Ploieşti attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.13 vs -0.86
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.16 – 1.23
- FC Farul Constanța v FC Petrolul Ploieşti
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Farul Constanța | FC Petrolul Ploieşti |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.63 · 9th | 1.34 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.68 · 7th | 2.38 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.05 · 10th | -1.04 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.45 · 7th | 1.06 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.13 | -0.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- FC Farul Constanța clean sheet
- 26%
- FC Farul Constanța 2+ goals
- 66%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:1
- 10.6%
- 3:1
- 8.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Farul Constanța sample
- 20 matches
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Farul Constanța
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.