FC Farul Constanța 4:2 UTA Arad: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FC Farul Constanța Home 2.07 xG

UTA Arad Away 1.98 xG

42 The chances were evenly matched

FC Farul Constanța were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 4–2. The biggest difference was UTA Arad's attack: 1.98 xG against 1.30 projected (+0.68). FC Farul Constanța produced 2.07 xG against 1.58 projected (+0.49).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Farul Constanța: 42% What happened
Draw: 29%
UTA Arad: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Farul Constanța 1.58 2.07 +0.49

UTA Arad 1.30 1.98 +0.68

UTA Arad produced 0.68 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Farul Constanța UTA Arad

Shots: 14; 17
On target: 10; 4
Inside the box: 12; 14
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Farul Constanța

1.58 xG created 1.58 xGA

W 2.29 created, 0.40 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
D 1.97 created, 4.29 conceded against FCSB
W 1.21 created, 0.55 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
D 1.05 created, 0.37 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
D 0.72 created, 1.53 conceded against Sepsi OSK
D 2.25 created, 2.32 conceded against FC Botoșani

UTA Arad

1.68 xG created 1.34 xGA

L 1.51 created, 0.79 conceded against FC Voluntari
D 0.84 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Rapid București
L 2.47 created, 2.30 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
D 1.35 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
W 1.08 created, 1.45 conceded against FCSB
W 2.86 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Farul Constanța: 0 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged7 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Farul Constanța against UTA Arad before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.08	+17.2%	Won
FC Farul Constanța 2+ goals	2.38	+15.0%	Won
Both teams to score	1.80	+13.9%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+9.5%	Won
FC Farul Constanța to score	1.30	+6.5%	Won
UTA Arad 2+ goals	2.75	+4.4%	Won
UTA Arad to score	1.36	+2.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Farul Constanța	42.4%	39.0%	+3.4 pp	2.36
Draw	28.8%	28.9%	−0.1 pp	3.47
UTA Arad	28.8%	32.0%	−3.3 pp	3.48

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Farul Constanța to score	81.9%	72.3%	+9.6 pp	1.22
FC Farul Constanța not to score	18.1%	27.7%	−9.6 pp	5.52
UTA Arad to score	75.3%	68.7%	+6.6 pp	1.33
UTA Arad not to score	24.7%	31.3%	−6.6 pp	4.05
Both teams to score	63.3%	51.5%	+11.8 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.7%	48.5%	−11.8 pp	2.73
FC Farul Constanța 2+ goals	48.4%	39.2%	+9.2 pp	2.07
FC Farul Constanța at most 1 goal	51.6%	60.8%	−9.2 pp	1.94
UTA Arad 2+ goals	38.0%	33.7%	+4.2 pp	2.63
UTA Arad at most 1 goal	62.0%	66.3%	−4.2 pp	1.61
Over 1.5 goals	82.1%	70.9%	+11.2 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	17.9%	29.1%	−11.2 pp	5.60
Over 2.5 goals	56.5%	45.4%	+11.1 pp	1.77
Under 2.5 goals	43.5%	54.6%	−11.1 pp	2.30

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Farul Constanța sample: 20 matches
UTA Arad sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.