FC Voluntari 2:2 SC Oțelul Galați: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FC Voluntari Home 1.96 xG

SC Oțelul Galați Away 2.65 xG

22 SC Oțelul Galați had the better chances, but it finished level

FC Voluntari were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was SC Oțelul Galați's attack: 2.65 xG against 1.48 projected (+1.17). FC Voluntari produced 1.96 xG against 1.51 projected (+0.45).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Voluntari: 36%
Draw: 29% What happened
SC Oțelul Galați: 35%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Voluntari 1.51 1.96 +0.45

SC Oțelul Galați 1.48 2.65 +1.17

SC Oțelul Galați produced 1.17 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Voluntari SC Oțelul Galați

Shots: 18; 16
On target: 6; 3
Inside the box: 15; 11
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.17

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Voluntari

1.40 xG created 2.58 xGA

L 0.66 created, 1.69 conceded against FC Hermannstadt
D 2.88 created, 2.57 conceded against FC Botoșani
L 1.16 created, 2.88 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
W 0.79 created, 1.51 conceded against UTA Arad
L 2.04 created, 2.23 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
L 0.87 created, 4.58 conceded against Universitatea Craiova

SC Oțelul Galați

1.40 xG created 1.32 xGA

W 1.85 created, 1.37 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
W 3.24 created, 0.83 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
D 0.37 created, 2.25 conceded against UTA Arad
D 0.48 created, 1.65 conceded against FC Dinamo București
D 1.60 created, 0.65 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
W 0.86 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged7 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Voluntari against SC Oțelul Galați before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.80	+18.5%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	2.00	+18.4%	Won
SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals	2.63	+17.5%	Won
FC Voluntari 2+ goals	2.50	+14.8%	Won
SC Oțelul Galați to score	1.36	+8.9%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+7.8%	Won
FC Voluntari to score	1.30	+4.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Voluntari	36.4%	37.7%	−1.2 pp	2.74
Draw	28.6%	29.8%	−1.2 pp	3.50
SC Oțelul Galați	34.9%	32.5%	+2.4 pp	2.86

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Voluntari to score	80.5%	72.3%	+8.2 pp	1.24
FC Voluntari not to score	19.5%	27.7%	−8.2 pp	5.14
SC Oțelul Galați to score	79.8%	68.7%	+11.1 pp	1.25
SC Oțelul Galați not to score	20.2%	31.3%	−11.1 pp	4.95
Both teams to score	65.8%	51.5%	+14.4 pp	1.52
Both teams not to score	34.2%	48.5%	−14.4 pp	2.93
FC Voluntari 2+ goals	45.9%	37.5%	+8.4 pp	2.18
FC Voluntari at most 1 goal	54.1%	62.5%	−8.4 pp	1.85
SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals	44.8%	35.5%	+9.3 pp	2.23
SC Oțelul Galați at most 1 goal	55.2%	64.5%	−9.3 pp	1.81
Over 1.5 goals	83.8%	72.0%	+11.9 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.2%	28.0%	−11.9 pp	6.18
Over 2.5 goals	59.2%	46.3%	+12.9 pp	1.69
Under 2.5 goals	40.8%	53.7%	−12.9 pp	2.45

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Voluntari sample: 6 matches
SC Oțelul Galați sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Voluntari has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.