Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 12h to kick-offUniversitatea Craiova – FC Farul Constanța
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Universitatea Craiova
- 67%
- Draw
- 22%
- FC Farul Constanța
- 12%
| Universitatea Craiova | Draw | FC Farul Constanța | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.50 | 4.63 | 8.43 |
- Total goals
- 3.15
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Universitatea Craiova
67% Universitatea Craiova to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 9th
- Universitatea Craiova attack v FC Farul Constanța defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 10th
- Universitatea Craiova defence v FC Farul Constanța attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.28 vs -0.13
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.21 – 0.94
- Universitatea Craiova v FC Farul Constanța
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Universitatea Craiova | FC Farul Constanța |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.45 · 1st | 1.63 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.11 · 1st | 1.68 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.34 · 1st | -0.05 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.03 · 2nd | 1.45 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.29 | -0.13 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Universitatea Craiova clean sheet
- 36%
- Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
- 67%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 1:1
- 10.7%
- 2:0
- 10.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Universitatea Craiova sample
- 20 matches
- FC Farul Constanța sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Universitatea Craiova
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Farul Constanța
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.