Universitatea Craiova 4:0 FC Universitatea Cluj: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 19:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Universitatea Craiova Home 2.05 xG

FC Universitatea Cluj Away 0.66 xG

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

Universitatea Craiova were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was FC Universitatea Cluj's attack: 0.66 xG against 1.09 projected (−0.43).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Universitatea Craiova: 59% What happened
Draw: 24%
FC Universitatea Cluj: 17%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Universitatea Craiova 2.06 2.05 -0.01

FC Universitatea Cluj 1.09 0.66 -0.43

FC Universitatea Cluj produced 0.43 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Universitatea Craiova FC Universitatea Cluj

Shots: 18; 8
On target: 7; 3
Inside the box: 16; 2
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.08

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Universitatea Craiova

2.63 xG created 1.35 xGA

L 1.08 created, 3.07 conceded against FC Dinamo București
W 4.14 created, 0.25 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
L 3.37 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
D 0.65 created, 1.60 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
W 4.58 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Voluntari
D 1.95 created, 1.39 conceded against FC Rapid București

FC Universitatea Cluj

2.15 xG created 1.94 xGA

W 0.95 created, 1.69 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
L 1.22 created, 1.79 conceded against Sepsi OSK
W 3.14 created, 2.14 conceded against FC Botoșani
W 2.30 created, 2.47 conceded against UTA Arad
L 1.94 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Dinamo București
L 3.33 created, 2.02 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Universitatea Craiova: 2 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Universitatea Craiova against FC Universitatea Cluj before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.73	+9.6%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.67	+5.3%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+3.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Universitatea Craiova	59.3%	58.2%	+1.1 pp	1.69
Draw	24.1%	24.8%	−0.7 pp	4.16
FC Universitatea Cluj	16.6%	17.0%	−0.4 pp	6.01

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.5%	53.7%	+9.8 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.5%	46.3%	−9.8 pp	2.74
Over 1.5 goals	85.9%	78.3%	+7.6 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	14.1%	21.7%	−7.6 pp	7.11
Over 2.5 goals	63.1%	56.3%	+6.8 pp	1.58
Under 2.5 goals	36.9%	43.7%	−6.8 pp	2.71

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Universitatea Craiova sample: 20 matches
FC Universitatea Cluj sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.