Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:00
12d 4h to kick-offFK Crvena zvezda – FK Mladost Lučani
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Crvena zvezda
- 82%
- Draw
- 13%
- FK Mladost Lučani
- 5%
| FK Crvena zvezda | Draw | FK Mladost Lučani | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.21 | 7.72 | 21.38 |
- Total goals
- 3.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 73%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Crvena zvezda
82% FK Crvena zvezda to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 12th
- FK Crvena zvezda attack v FK Mladost Lučani defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 14th
- FK Crvena zvezda defence v FK Mladost Lučani attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.45 vs -0.79
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.91 – 0.75
- FK Crvena zvezda v FK Mladost Lučani
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Crvena zvezda | FK Mladost Lučani |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.78 · 1st | 1.08 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.98 · 1st | 2.11 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.80 · 1st | -1.03 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.36 · 1st | 0.69 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.45 | -0.79 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- FK Crvena zvezda clean sheet
- 45%
- FK Crvena zvezda 2+ goals
- 81%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 27%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 3:0
- 10.8%
- 2:0
- 10.6%
- 3:1
- 9.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Crvena zvezda sample
- 20 matches
- FK Mladost Lučani sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Crvena zvezda
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Mladost Lučani
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.