Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeFK IMT Beograd 0:1 FK Crvena zvezda
FK Crvena zvezda were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK IMT Beograd's attack: 0.60 xG against 1.28 projected (−0.68).
The model against the result
- FK IMT Beograd
- 34%
- Draw
- 31%
- FK Crvena zvezda
- 35% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK IMT Beograd produced 0.68 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 9
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 5
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.14
Recent form
1.89 xG created 1.06 xGA
- D 0.58 created, 1.12 conceded against FK TSC Bačka Topola
- W 1.39 created, 1.78 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 3.98 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Zemun
- W 2.25 created, 0.71 conceded against FK Partizan
- D 2.87 created, 0.54 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- L 0.30 created, 2.23 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
2.56 xG created 1.04 xGA
- D 0.74 created, 0.69 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- W 3.93 created, 0.01 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 2.67 created, 1.86 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- W 2.53 created, 1.02 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 3.51 created, 1.52 conceded against FK Zemun
- W 1.96 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Partizan
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK IMT Beograd to win | 8.00 | +171.7% | Lost |
| FK Crvena zvezda not to score | 7.00 | +71.7% | Lost |
| FK IMT Beograd 2+ goals | 4.50 | +68.4% | Lost |
| FK Crvena zvezda at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +62.3% | Won |
| Draw | 4.75 | +47.6% | Lost |
| FK IMT Beograd to score | 1.80 | +34.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +11.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | +9.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK IMT Beograd | 34.0% | 11.7% | +22.3 pp | 2.94 |
| Draw | 31.1% | 19.7% | +11.4 pp | 3.22 |
| FK Crvena zvezda | 35.0% | 68.6% | −33.6 pp | 2.86 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK IMT Beograd to score | 74.9% | 51.5% | +23.4 pp | 1.33 |
| FK IMT Beograd not to score | 25.1% | 48.5% | −23.4 pp | 3.99 |
| FK Crvena zvezda to score | 75.5% | 86.6% | −11.1 pp | 1.32 |
| FK Crvena zvezda not to score | 24.5% | 13.4% | +11.1 pp | 4.08 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 48.5% | +9.8 pp | 1.71 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.6% | 51.5% | −9.8 pp | 2.40 |
| FK IMT Beograd 2+ goals | 37.4% | 20.6% | +16.8 pp | 2.67 |
| FK IMT Beograd at most 1 goal | 62.6% | 79.4% | −16.8 pp | 1.60 |
| FK Crvena zvezda 2+ goals | 38.2% | 64.5% | −26.3 pp | 2.62 |
| FK Crvena zvezda at most 1 goal | 61.8% | 35.5% | +26.3 pp | 1.62 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | 78.3% | −1.2 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 21.7% | +1.2 pp | 4.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 56.3% | −7.5 pp | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 43.7% | +7.5 pp | 1.96 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK IMT Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- FK Crvena zvezda sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.