Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:00
30d 4h to kick-offFK Novi Pazar – FK Mladost Lučani
Model updated 8 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Novi Pazar
- 60%
- Draw
- 25%
- FK Mladost Lučani
- 16%
| FK Novi Pazar | Draw | FK Mladost Lučani | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.68 | 4.08 | 6.28 |
- Total goals
- 3.01
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Novi Pazar
60% FK Novi Pazar to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 12th
- FK Novi Pazar attack v FK Mladost Lučani defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 14th
- FK Novi Pazar defence v FK Mladost Lučani attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.15 vs -0.79
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.99 – 1.02
- FK Novi Pazar v FK Mladost Lučani
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Novi Pazar | FK Mladost Lučani |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.00 · 6th | 1.08 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.04 · 10th | 2.11 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.04 · 9th | -1.03 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.44 · 8th | 0.69 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.15 | -0.79 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- FK Novi Pazar clean sheet
- 33%
- FK Novi Pazar 2+ goals
- 61%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.1%
- 2:1
- 11.7%
- 2:0
- 9.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Novi Pazar sample
- 20 matches
- FK Mladost Lučani sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Novi Pazar
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Mladost Lučani
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 08/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.